Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation possible

Wind: Light winds in the morning and into the afternoon; west or northwest winds of 10-15 mph by late afternoon or evening

Thursday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Westerly winds of 5-15 mph

Friday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Westerly winds of 5-15 mph

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Westerly winds of 5-15 mph

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Westerly winds of 5-15 mph

Forecast Discussion:

Today, a low pressure wave sitting just off the coast of California will nudge its way into the U.S. mainland. This wave will help to shunt high pressure to the east and result in a southerly (from the south) flow over Arizona. One of the main effects this flow will have on Arizona's weather will be cloud cover. Already this morning, clouds can be seen on satellite beginning to stream into southern Arizona.

Additionally, the Valley is expected to have a breezy afternoon today, with winds out of the west. In fact, gusty winds (>20 mph) look to be possible later in the afternoon. As a result, pockets of dust will be possible in dust-prone areas.

Furthermore, it would be remiss not to mention the chances for rain/storms, beginning later this evening/night and lasting into tomorrow afternoon. In an absolute sense, not a lot of rainfall is expected--0.05-0.15" may be possible for locations that receive rain. But for the month of June, for which Sky Harbor averages 0.02" of rain in all, anywhere in this range would be above average. Any rain would be welcome though, as it would help to suppress dust in the air.

After Wednesday, sunny skies and lighter winds are forecast to return to the Valley. High temperatues will also gradually increase each day, reaching the 110°F mark by Saturday. During this time, dust should remain primarily locally driven. Dust from local sources will be highest in the morning hours when conditions are stagnant.

Overall, the dust risk wil be Low through at least Sunday.

- M. Graves
ADEQ Meteorologist