[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Friday, November 11, 2011

Thu Nov 10 11:51:39 MST 2011

Health message for Thursday November 10: No health impacts are expected.

Health message for Friday November 11: No health impacts are expected. 

Synopsis and Discussion
PARTICLES:  As expected, gusty gradient winds (up to 36 mph at Buckeye
at 10:00 a.m.) are underway over the metro area but should decrease by
mid-afternoon.  The strong ridge aloft building overhead today that are
responsible for said winds will weaken on Friday and Saturday as a
strong Pacific trough approaches from the west with extensive cloud
cover expected to persist thru the weekend.  However, due to a split in
the mid-latitude storm track, there is currently a high degree of
uncertainty in the timing and track of this system, but for now there
appears to be a chance for showers in the Phoenix metro by late
Saturday.  Breezy gradient winds at times along with recent rainfall -
and the prospect for more - should keep 24-hour average coarse particle
(PM-10) concentrations in the good range of the Air Quality Index.  With
more unsettled weather on the way, even if smoke emissions from
wood-burning fireplace activity increase this weekend, 24-hour average
fine particle (PM-2.5) levels should also remain in the good range.    
OZONE:  Although Valley ozone precursor (NOx & VOC) emissions tend to
remain fairly constant all year, by October those factors conducive to
efficient ozone production - such as sun angle, day length, and
excessive heat - have all become less.  Thus, local ozone levels are
typically not much of an air quality problem again until late March.  

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Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215

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