Tue Mar 8 12:40:53 MST 2011

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Health message for Tuesday, March 8: Unusually sensitive people should
consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.

Health message for Wednesday, March 9: Unusually sensitive people should
consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.

A significant warming trend is underway as the system that brought very
windy conditions to Arizona Monday has quickly moved east. Clear skies,
light winds, and the return of high pressure to the region will send
afternoon desert temperatures soaring into the low to mid 80s on
Wednesday, about 10 degrees higher than Tuesday's max. The calmer
conditions will allow the "dust to settle" so to speak, resulting in
lower Particulate concentrations. Nighttime temperatures will be in the
50s through the weekend which should be too warm for widespread
fireplace activity. Furthermore, afternoon mixing heights will be much
higher the next few days, promoting better vertical dispersion of local
pollution. Thus, PM2.5 levels will likely remain in the GOOD range of
the Air Quality Index through Friday.
Ozone will be the focus our attentions moving forward. As the sun gets
higher, afternoon temperatures get hotter, and surface winds remain
lighter, ozone generation becomes favorable over the metropolitan area.
A slow west to east flow will cause the invisible plume to drift towards
the east and northeast each day, where the highest concentrations
typically occur  As the sun goes down, ozone breaks down and the
precursors either disperse towards the northeast or fall back into the
Valley, becoming available for the next-day's ozone generation. With
that said, we expect to see a modest increase in ozone levels the next
several days. Maximum concentrations will likely be in the lower
MODERATE range with a couple monitors approaching the middle part of
that category (likely Cave Creek, Blue Point, or Pinnacle Peak).  No
Health Statements are being issued at this time.

If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215

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