[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Issues Air Pollution Health Watch for Fri., Oct. 10

Thu Oct 9 12:29:26 MST 2008

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Health message for Thursday, October 09: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 
Health message for Friday, October 10: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
The air mass over the metro area remained rather stagnant this a.m.;
ACARS sounding data revealed that a moderate (6-7 deg C) surface-based
radiation inversion that extended all the way to 1800' formed overnight,
and that winds aloft up to about the 3K' level were 10 mph or less. A
fairly dense Valley Brown Cloud could be seen overhead and at 9:00 a.m.
hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) concentrations ranged from 44.2ug/m3 at
the Central Phoenix monitoring site to 171.8ug/m3 at West Forty Third.
Fortunately, big weather changes are on the way that will usher in a new
air mass.  A large and cold upper level trough will be developing over
the western U.S. during the next 48 hours.  Due to its overland
trajectory, it will not possess abundant moisture, and most of the cloud
cover/moisture shed from Hurricane Norbert will be shunted to the east
of the Valley.  Thus, the main impacts from this trough are expected to
be much cooler temperatures by Saturday and plenty of wind Friday and
Saturday.  Winds at the 10K' level by Friday evening and Saturday
morning - as a surface cold front approach and passage occurs - are
advertised to be in the 40-60 mph range.  Downward motion capable of
delivering some of this momentum to the surface will likely result in
areas of dense blowing and suspended dust by Friday evening, with carry
over into Saturday.  Thus, a PM-10 Health Watch has been issued for
Friday with the strong potential for a High Pollution Advisory on
Saturday.  -Reith   

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