Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Updated On: 2/3/2023 - 8:08 AM

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Mostly light winds

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Southwest winds of 5-15 mph

Monday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Westerly winds of 10-20 mph

Tuesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Northerly winds of 5-15 mph

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Northerly winds of 5-15 mph

Forecast Discussion:

This morning, there are plenty of clouds over the region as a disturbance moves into the West Coast. At the same time, a ridge of high pressure has an axis running from the Arizona/New Mexico border northward through Montana. This pattern will shift eastward by tomorrow morning, with high pressure quickly building back into the area late Saturday into Sunday. These pattern shifts won't bring any rain to the region, with afternoon high temperatures rising into the mid-70s today through Sunday.

The next more robust storm system to watch is currently about 1,000 west of the Pacific Northwest. This system will move over the West Coast on Sunday before moving into Arizona Monday into Tuesday. This trough will be relatively moisture-starved, so only expecting a very slight chance of rain in the Valley on Monday (best chances north/east of Phoenix), but it will bring breezy westerly winds to the region on Monday along with some cooler air, with afternoon highs dropping back into the mid-60 Monday and Tuesday.

As for air quality, forecasting PM-2.5 (smoke) to be in the Moderate AQI category through the forecast period. PM-10 (dust) is forecast to be in the Moderate AQI category today before lowering back into the Good AQI category this weekend. By Monday, with light winds in the morning increasing PM-10 concentrations and breezes in the afternoon possibly producing some pockets of blowing dust, PM-10 will be back into the Moderate AQI category on Monday.

Have a great weekend!

- M. Pace
ADEQ Meteorologist