Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph and higher gusts

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph

Monday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Westerly winds of 5-15 mph

Tuesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Westerly winds of 10-20 mph

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Westerly winds of 5-15 mph

Forecast Discussion:

This morning (Friday), weather maps show that the jet stream has arrived in full force over the West. This has ultimately provoked the National Weather Service to issue Red Flag Warnings (i.e. critical fire weather conditions) across the Southwest because of the windy and dry weather. Today will be a windy day for the Valley, with afternoon wind speeds reaching up to 20-30 mph with higher gusts.

Given the strength of this afternoon's winds, blowing dust will be possible. PM10 levels will be highest for dust-prone areas, especially the typical industrial areas south/southwest of the Phoenix metro area. A Moderate dust risk is in effect for today.

For most of the forecast period (Saturday through Monday), low pressure will be the dominating weather pattern over the West and Southwest. Weather-wise, each day, high temperatures will be held in the 90s; daytime winds will also be breezy, particularly over the weekend. Pockets of dust may be possible for dust-prone areas in the afternoons, but nothing like today.

Then by Tuesday, the pattern over Arizona will begin to transition from low pressure to high pressure. Highs will approach the 100°F mark, and daytime breezes will increase out of the west. High pressure and lighter winds are then forecast for Wednesday.

The dust risk will be Low Saturday through at least Wednesday.

Check back on Monday for the next dust risk outlook.

- M. Graves
ADEQ Meteorologist