Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Light and variable winds (gusty winds possible with outflows/storms)

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: West winds of 5-10 mph

Monday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: West winds of 5-10 mph

Tuesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: West winds of 5-10 mph

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: West winds of 5-10 mph

Forecast Discussion:

Thunderstorms developed overnight, bringing a trace of rain to Phoenix Sky Harbor and heavier rain to portions of the West Valley, with Luke Air Force Base picking up 0.49 inches! Radar/satellite shows these showers are moving west, with clearing skies across most of the Valley.

It will be another tricky weather and air quality forecast today for Phoenix. High pressure is now centered over the Arkansas/Oklahoma state line, which is continuing the east/southeast flow over Arizona. At the same time, the disturbance we have been tracking is now over southern Arizona and Northern Mexico. While we will likely see some isolated thunderstorms in the Valley this afternoon into the evening hours, with chances continuing overnight into tomorrow, not expecting widespread activity in the Valley. With that said, any storms that do form will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain.

Later this weekend into the first part of next week, expect conditions to dry out as high pressure builds back overhead. This pattern shift will result in mainly clear skies, light winds, meager to no storm chances in the Valley, and warmer temperatures Sunday through at least Tuesday.

As for air quality, ozone will once again be the primary pollutant of concern. With added cloud cover from time-to-time, along with the potential for some storm activity, expecting ozone levels to be in the upper Moderate AQI category today. As skies clear and storm chances dwindle later Saturday into the first part of next week, forecasting ozone to quickly build up in the Valley. As a result, an Ozone High Pollution Advisory is in effect for Saturday and Sunday, with an Ozone High Pollution Watch in effect for Monday and Tuesday.

Have a great weekend!

- M. Pace
ADEQ Meteorologist