[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, February 07, 2012

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Monday February 06: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  

Health message for Tuesday February 07: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 


Synopsis and Discussion
PARTICLES:  A weak upper level trough in the southern branch of the mid-latitude storm track will largely by-pass the Phoenix metro area to the west on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Although considerable cloud cover is probable both days, little if any rainfall is expected.  In the meantime, the local air mass will remain rather stagnant at times and a few high hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) concentrations - such as the 250-323ug/m3 readings at the Buckeye, West Forty Third, and Durango monitoring sites between 7:30 and 10:30 a.m. this morning) - and PM-2.5 (fine particle) concentrations - such as the 34.8ug/m3 reading at Durango at 8:00 a.m. this morning) are possible until/unless rainfall occurs.  However, 24-hour average concentrations of both pollutants should reach no higher then the low-moderate range of the Air Quality Index.  The last significant Valley rainfall event was on December 13 or 55 days ago. 
OZONE:  Although Valley ozone precursor (NOx & VOC) emissions tend to remain fairly constant all year, by October those factors conducive to efficient ozone production - such as sun angle, day length, and excessive heat - have all become less.  Thus, local ozone levels are typically not much of an air quality problem again until late March.  


For more information, please visit our Web page:
www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf 

For transportation alternatives:
www.valleymetro.org 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov