[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Mon Nov 28 11:13:30 MST 2011

Health message for Monday November 28: No health impacts are expected.

Health message for Tuesday November 29: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
PARTICLES: Monday morning Sky Harbor Airport ACARS sounding data
indicates that the strongest (8.5 deg C) and tallest (`3200')
surface-based radiation inversion of the season thus far formed
overnight.  The data also revealed that this inversion will not break
today - with a mixing depth of only 2600' this afternoon and POOR to
MARGINAL dispersion.  Warm air aloft, overnight inversion formation, and
a relatively light wind regime - along with drying and disturbed soils -
are expected to result in some periodic spikes in hourly PM-10
concentrations the next few days although 24-hour average concentrations
will remain relatively low.  The highest instantaneous PM-10 level this
a.m. was 327ug/m3 at the Durango monitoring site at 7:19 a.m.  Some high
fine particle (PM-2.5) concentrations also occurred this morning - up to
55.5ug/3 at Durango at 8:00 and 9:00 a.m.  The fairly strong ridge aloft
currently over Arizona will weaken some by Wednesday morning before a
cold and deep and potentially wet upper level trough in the mid-latitude
storm track moves south over the state on Thursday and Friday.  
OZONE:  Although Valley ozone precursor (NOx & VOC) emissions tend to
remain fairly constant all year, by October those factors conducive to
efficient ozone production - such as sun angle, day length, and
excessive heat - have all become less.  Thus, local ozone levels are
typically not much of an air quality problem again until late March.  

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Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215

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