[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, November 15, 2011

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Monday November 14: No health impacts are expected.

Health message for Tuesday November 15: No health impacts are expected. 


Synopsis and Discussion
PARTICLES:  Even though the mid-latitude storm track will slowly shift
northward the next few days, a broad trough embedded within it will
remain over Arizona thru Tuesday - followed by a ridge building overhead
beginning on Wednesday.  Warming aloft - 5-10 deg F in the 5-10K' layer
by Wednesday afternoon, along with overnight inversion formation and a
relatively light wind regime - will cause the air mass over the Valley
to become increasingly stagnant by then.  Fortunately, recent rainfall
events will help keep 24-hour average coarse particle (PM-10) pollution
concentrations on the low side. However, with the onset of colder
weather and the approach of the holidays, fine particle (PM-2.5) levels
can increase significantly due to smoke emissions from wood-burning
fireplaces and appliances.  This is especially true under air mass
stagnation situations and as a result the low-moderate range of the Air
Quality Index may be reached later this week.    
OZONE:  Although Valley ozone precursor (NOx & VOC) emissions tend to
remain fairly constant all year, by October those factors conducive to
efficient ozone production - such as sun angle, day length, and
excessive heat - have all become less.  Thus, local ozone levels are
typically not much of an air quality problem again until late March.  


For more information, please visit our Web page:
www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf 

For transportation alternatives:
www.valleymetro.org 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov