[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, November 08, 2011

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Monday November 07: No health impacts are expected.

Health message for Tuesday November 08: No health impacts are expected. 


Synopsis and Discussion
PARTICLES: A long-wave trough in the mid-latitude storm track that has
been over AZ since Saturday will move east on Tuesday with a strong
ridge aloft building overhead from the west on Wednesday and Thursday.
Stagnation of the air mass in the Phoenix metro area due to significant
warming aloft  (13-16 deg F in the 5-10K' layer by Wednesday afternoon)
and decreasing mixing depths will be offset to a degree by breezy to
gusty easterly winds Wednesday afternoon and especially on Thursday.
This, along with recent rainfall, will keep PM-10 (coarse particle)
levels in the good range of the Air Quality Index.  Although emissions
from wood-burning fireplaces and appliances tend to peak during the
weekends this time of year, PM-2.5 (fine particle) concentrations could
rise significantly higher than forecast the next few days if such
burning increases due to the cold weather.            
OZONE:  Although Valley ozone precursor (NOx & VOC) emissions tend to
remain fairly constant all year, by October those factors conducive to
efficient ozone production - such as sun angle, day length, and
excessive heat - have all become less.  Thus, local ozone levels are
typically not much of an air quality problem again until late March.  


For more information, please visit our Web page:
www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf 

For transportation alternatives:
www.valleymetro.org 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov