[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Thursday, November 03, 2011

Wed Nov 2 12:13:19 MST 2011

Health message for Wednesday, November 2: Unusually sensitive people
should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.

Health message for Thursday, November 3: Unusually sensitive people
should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.

Synopsis and Discussion
Wednesday's cold front brought the wind which did in fact kick up dust
across parts of the Valley.  Surprise and Sun City has seen some of the
strongest winds with gusts around 50 mph at 10am.  PM10 levels are well
on their way to exceeding for the day at the Zuni Hills monitory (109th
Ave. north of Deer Valley) due to its close proximity to the (dry) Agua
Fria River and the sand/gravel operations in the riverbed. 

Winds will decrease this afternoon and we'll have a relatively calm day
on Thursday before the second, stronger system hits us.  Forecast wind
gusts Friday are expected to be around 45 mph, but likely higher (based
on today's actual vs. forecast gusts).  This should easily push several
Valley PM10 monitors over the health standard on Friday.  Models are
suggesting that we could see some rain, close to a half an inch in some
parts of the forecast area, early Saturday.  This would be a huge help
in clearing any lingering dust from the previous day's event.  

The colder air from each system will undoubtedly trigger a significant
increase in residential fireplace activity this weekend as lows drop
into the upper 40s and low 50s.  Highs are expected to be in the mid to
upper 60s through next Tuesday.  Smoke from fireplaces will likely push
PM2.5 levels well into the low to mid Moderate range of the Air Quality
Index (AQI) Thursday and again this weekend.

Due to the recent and forecasted dust and fireplace, people with
respiratory issues will want to take it easy, staying indoors as much as
possible through at least Friday night.  Under calmer conditions
throughout the colder months, the best time for outdoor exertion will be
around 10am - 4pm, after inversions have lifted and before they form
again, trapping pollution near the surface.  That window decreases as
temperatures get colder.

Check back tomorrow for the more.  Until then, have a good day!  -J.Paul

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If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215

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