[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 31, 2011

forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov
Wed Mar 30 12:29:09 MST 2011


For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Thursday March 31: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors.

Health message for Friday April 01: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors.

Synopsis and Discussion

OZONE:  The stage is set for a solid run-up in local ozone levels the
next few days.  A strong ridge aloft from the Pacific has begun to build
over the metro area.  The ridge axis is forecast to arrive overhead
Friday afternoon with relatively light winds Thursday and Friday with an
easterly component in the lower levels thru the morning hours on Friday.
This, combined with record to near-record afternoon high temperatures in
the 95 to 100-degree F range - along with negligible cloud cover - will
be highly conducive to above average ozone production. At this time
highest concentrations are expected to remain below Health Watch
criteria. 
  
PARTICLES: The highest hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) concentration this
morning was 114.0ug/m3 at the Durango monitoring site at 6 a.m. PM-2.5
(fine particle) concentrations remain quite low and 24-hour average
concentrations of both pollutants are forecast to remain in the good
range of the Air Quality Index thru this forecast period; however, soil
moisture loss will be on the increase the rest of the week due to the
very warm and dry conditions. This may have implications for the weekend
since by Saturday afternoon winds will be on the increase in advance of
a strong but dry upper level trough and surface cold front approaching
from the northwest.This may culminate in a strong wind/blowing dust
event on Sunday afternoon if advertised winds of 38 mph at the 5,000 ft.
level and 41 mph at the 10K' level materialize. This situation will be
updated on Thursday and Friday.


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov

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