[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Thursday, March 03, 2011

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Wednesday March 02: No health impacts are expected.

Health message for Thursday March 03: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 
 

Synopsis and Discussion
Air mass stagnation still a problem over the Valley this a.m. - aided by
a strong (5-6 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion that extends to
1700'.  Highest hourly coarse (PM-10) particle concentrations this a.m.
were <100ug/m3 but max fine (PM-2.5) particle readings approached
45ug/m3 at the West Phoenix monitoring site.  A rather stable weather
pattern has evolved over the western U.S. in the form of a low-amplitude
ridge aloft with west to east upper level winds.  On Friday a weak
disturbance embedded in the flow will pass over the metro area;
low-level gradients are forecast to tighten enough to produce breezy
conditions in the Phoenix metro area Friday afternoon and Saturday
morning along with an improvement in dispersion.  In addition, forecast
streamline flow at the 5K' level still appears conducive to the
transport of additional ozone and its precursors from CA beginning late
tonight and continuing thru Thursday afternoon.  As a result, an early
season spike in local ozone levels is expected on Thursday although
significant high cloud cover during the morning hours should dampen its
effect.  -Reith   


For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf 

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov 


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