[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Wednesday, March 02, 2011

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Tuesday March 01: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 
 
Health message for Wednesday March 02: No health impacts are expected.


Synopsis and Discussion
Tuesday morning Sky Harbor Airport ACARS sounding data indicates that a
moderate (4-5 deg C) surface-based inversion formed overnight that
reaches to nearly 2400'.  This contributed to some elevated hourly fine
particle (PM-2.5) concentrations that between 6:00 and 10:00 a.m. ranged
from 20-32ug/m3 at the West Phoenix, Durango, and South Phoenix
monitoring sites.  After today the combination of taller mixing depths,
weaker overnight inversions, and warmer afternoon temperatures should
make for improved dispersion and lower 24-hour average particle
concentrations. Near-zonal (west to east) flow aloft exists over AZ and
along with a flat upper level ridge overhead will lead to periods of mid
and high cloud cover from the Pacific the next few days.  On Thursday
and Friday a weak disturbance embedded in the flow will approach and
pass over the metro area.  Its impacts will include an increase in
low-level gradients sufficient to produce breezy conditions in the
Phoenix metro area Friday afternoon.  In addition, forecast streamline
flow at the 5K' level still looks conducive to the transport of
additional ozone and its precursors from CA - especially on Thursday.
For now it appears that cloud cover will impede local ozone production
enough to keep highest readings just shy of the low-moderate range of
the Air Quality Index. -Reith   


For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf 

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov 

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