From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Tue Feb 1 12:27:46 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2011 12:27:46 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Wednesday, February 02, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B2E9EE0@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> Health message for Tuesday February 01: No health impacts are expected. Health message for Wednesday February 02: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion or Synopsis and Discussion Despite the light rainfall in the Valley on Monday, some elevated hourly PM-10 (coarse) particle concentrations were measured this a.m. (with an assist from a 3-4 deg C surface-based radiation inversion). Between 6:00 and 9:00 a.m. readings at the Durango monitoring site ranged from 82.4 to 160ug/m3 with peak levels of 92.7ug/m3 at West Forty Third and 86.6ug/m3 at Buckeye. A very large and cold upper level trough in the mid-latitude storm track will be over the western U.S. - including AZ - the next few days. An embedded disturbance moving south in the flow will cause tight low-level gradients and wind gusts up to 35 mph to develop over the Phoenix metro area on Wednesday continuing into Thursday morning. As a result, not much in the way of stagnation is expected, but in light of the aforementioned elevated PM-10 readings, some blowing dust is likely in locations with areas of dry and disturbed soil. Otherwise, good air quality is expected Wednesday and Thursday. A major increase in air mass stagnation is expected on Friday due to significant warming aloft and less wind. -Reith For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ? ? ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Wed Feb 2 12:26:47 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2011 12:26:47 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Thursday, February 03, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B2E9EF6@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> Health message for Wednesday February 02: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Thursday February 03: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion A very cold and extremely dry air mass has settled over the Valley in the wake of Tuesday's frontal passage, and a deep upper level low and trough in the mid-latitude storm track will remain overhead today beginning to move east on Thursday as a ridge builds over the Great Basin from the west. The low-level gradient between the two features will keep gusty winds going in the Phoenix metro area thru Thursday morning. However, local wood-burning fireplace use is apt to increase and the ensuing smoke emissions may cause PM-2.5 (fine particle) concentrations to increase markedly despite the very good dispersion. Between Thursday morning and Friday afternoon major warming aloft (23-29 deg F in the 5-10K layer), strong overnight inversion formation, and less wind will contribute to a substantial increase in air mass stagnation. As a result of this and a high probability of continued fireplace use, high hourly PM-10 and PM-2.5 concentrations are likely mainly during the morning and evening hours on Friday; levels of both pollutants are forecast to increase into the low-moderate range of the Air Quality Index. -Reith For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ? ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Thu Feb 3 12:15:07 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2011 12:15:07 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 04, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B3228D8@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Thursday February 03: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Friday February 04: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion Per morning Sky Harbor Airport ACARS data no inversion was present over the metro area this a.m. and the best mixing depth was near 6K'; hourly particle pollutant levels were comfortably low thru 11:00 a.m. This situation will change markedly on Friday, however. The very cold upper level low and trough in the mid-latitude storm track that brought gusty winds to the Phoenix metro area the past few days will begin to move east today as a strong ridge aloft builds toward the area from the west. Wind speeds will be significantly lower by Friday and when combined with very strong warming aloft (25-30 deg F in the 5-10K' layer by Friday afternoon) and overnight inversion formation, rapid stagnation of the Valley air mass will occur. The current forecast mixing depth for Friday is only 3K'. As a result, a few high hourly PM-10 (coarse) concentrations are expected during the morning hours on Friday; however, 24-hour average levels will remain low. If wood-burning fireplace use increases as is usually the case, elevated PM-2.5 (fine) levels due to trapped smoke are likely thru the weekend. If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Fri Feb 4 12:08:38 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2011 12:08:38 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Saturday, February 5, 2011 Message-ID: Health message for Friday, February 4: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Health message for Saturday, January 5: No health impacts are expected. Synopsis and Discussion: A warming trend will take place the next several days as the strong trough of low pressure that brought freezing temperatures to the Valley will continue to pull away to the east. Much lighter winds are expected through the weekend under sunny skies. Afternoon desert temperatures will rise from the mid 50s Friday to the mid 60s Saturday and ultimately the low to mid 70s by Monday and Tuesday of next week. There is no rain expected in the forecast area for at least 1 to 2 weeks. The recent strong winds and extremely dry air has eliminated any effects from the recent sprinkles that fell across the forecast area ahead of the system. In fact, soil moisture has decreased significantly in the past few days. This will allow the desert soil to become airborne a bit easier, resulting in high particulate concentrations. Wood smoke from residential fireplaces has increased PM2.5 levels overnight as well. The good news is that overnight temperatures will also increase into the mid to upper 40s through the weekend. This will keep morning inversion from being too strong. Thus, particulates should be able mix out a bit easier the next few days resulting in lower overall particulate levels. Check back on Sunday for a look at next week's weather and air quality. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Mon Feb 7 12:13:35 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2011 12:13:35 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, February 08, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B2E9F2A@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> Health message for Monday February 07: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Tuesday February 08: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion On Sunday accumulated smoke from overnight wood-burning activities yielded the highest local fine particle (PM-2.5) concentrations since New Year's Day. The monitor at West Phoenix measured a high hourly concentration of 78.0ug/m2 at 2:00 a.m. Sunday morning. The overnight formation of a strong (8-9 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion contributed to some high hourly PM-2.5 and PM-10 (coarse particle) levels this a.m. Between 6:00 and 9:00 a.m. PM-10 readings at the West Forty Third site ranged from 81.9 to 161.4ug/m3 and from 92.1 to 192.2ug/m3 at the Durango site. Other high concentrations included 110.6ug/m3 at Greenwood and 99.6ug/m3 at Buckeye. PM-2.5 concentrations reached 44.5ug/m3 at Durango and 34.8ug/m3 at West Phoenix. The synoptic weather pattern remains unchanged with a large upper level ridge to the west of AZ and a deep trough to the east. Similar to last week, a significant disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft will bring another round of gusty winds to the Phoenix metro area on Tuesday. Since no rainfall is expected, some blowing and transported dust is possible from areas of disturbed and loose soil. Otherwise, good air quality is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. -Reith For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ? ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Tue Feb 8 12:01:53 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2011 12:01:53 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Wednesday, February 09, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B2E9F38@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> Health message for Tuesday, February 8: No health impacts are expected. Health message for Wednesday, February 9: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion Another disturbance will drop south through eastern Arizona this afternoon, increasing winds out of the north. Colder, drier air will fill in behind the system Wednesday. Breezes will continue tonight through Wednesday morning, decreasing by the afternoon. Particulate levels this morning were up slightly over 24 hours earlier. Winds this afternoon could increase PM10 a bit further before clearing the suspended particles out of the area. PM2.5 should drop off tonight. The colder air will drop afternoon and overnight temperatures by about 5 degrees. This will likely increase the fireplace usage across the Valley slightly. We could see even more activity over the weekend as the "cold snap" remains fresh in the minds of Valley residents. In the mean time, air quality levels are forecast to be in the GOOD range of the air quality index on Wednesday, increasing to the lower MODERATE range Thursday as PM2.5 levels rebound slightly. Check back tomorrow for the latest. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ? ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Wed Feb 9 11:24:02 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2011 11:24:02 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Thursday, February 10, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B2E9F46@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> Health message for Wednesday, February 9: No health impacts are expected. Health message for Thursday, February 10: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion A jump in particulates occurred yesterday across much of Arizona in response to the dry, sweeping cold front that passed through the region on Tuesday. Winds increased in the Valley around 10 am and persisted well into the evening hours. PM10 levels (dust) increased at the same time. Fortunately, the sustained winds also helped to disperse some the airborne dust, so the overall 24-hr averages for Tuesday only reached the low to mid MODERATE range of the Air Quality Index (AQI). PM2.5 barely reached the lower part of that category at the Durango monitor while all other PM2.5 stations were in the GOOD range. We should see a day of pretty good air quality in the forecast area (today), followed by an upward trend in fine particulates heading into the weekend due to an increase in fireplace usage the next several nights. However, we do not anticipate concentrations threatening any health standards in the near future. Check back on Thursday for the latest. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ? ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Thu Feb 10 11:11:00 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2011 11:11:00 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Friday, February 11, 2011 Message-ID: Health message for Thursday, February 10: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Health message for Friday, February 11: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion: A very strong ridge of high pressure will build over the region from the west through early next week. We will see afternoon desert temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s by Friday and Saturday under mostly sunny skies and relatively light winds. The ground is now very dry due the past couple of dry cold fronts. Thus, dust particles are much more susceptible to becoming airborne than a few weeks ago. Current concentrations show overall good air quality at the moment. Heading into the weekend, an increase in evening fireplace activity may push PM2.5 levels slightly higher. PM10 should continue to hold in the upper part of the GOOD range through at least Sunday. Models indicate the next opportunity for Valley rain will not be until at least the 18th of February. This means that we could see a week of dusty air next week, affecting allergy sufferers as well as some with respiratory issues such as asthma. Be sure to check the latest forecast each day for any changes to the weather or air quality. Until tomorrow, have a good day! -J.Paul For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Fri Feb 11 11:36:15 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2011 11:36:15 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B32292B@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Friday, February 11: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Health message for Saturday, February 12: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Gorgeous weather is on tap for the Phoenix forecast area this weekend. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 70s under sunny skies and fairly light winds. High pressure will be with us through much of next week. The next shot of showers will be towards the end of next week as a large trough of low pressure develops to the west and pushes into the region. Air quality was really good on Thursday with all pollutants in the GOOD range of the air quality index (AQI). We could see PM2.5 reach the lower MODERATE range as early as this evening due to increasing weekend fireplace activity. Increased mixing heights should help disperse some of the weekend pollution vertically, but there will be little horizontal movement due to light winds under high pressure. If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Mon Feb 14 11:06:21 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2011 11:06:21 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, February 15, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B2E9F5B@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> Health message for Monday February 14: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Tuesday February 15: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion Monday morning Sky Harbor Airport ACARS sounding data indicated that a strong (8-9 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion that reached to near 2K' formed overnight. This, along with a light wind regime and an increase in workday emissions, resulted in some elevated to high hourly particle pollutant concentrations this a.m. Between 6:00 and 9:00 a.m. highest coarse (PM-10) levels reached 192.9ug/m3 at the Durango monitoring site, 140.7ug/m3 at West Forty Third, 99.5ug/m3 at Higley, 96.9ug/m3 at Buckeye, and 88.3ug/m3 at Greenwood. Highest fine (PM-2.5) readings included 31.6ug/m3 at Durango and 24.9ug/m3 at West Phoenix. A warm ridge aloft and stagnant air mass will remain over the Valley on Tuesday with elevated PM levels once again. Fortunately, the ridge will move east on Wednesday as the mid-latitude storm track shifts southward. The first in a series of Pacific weather disturbances will bring a noticeable increase in winds and the potential for some blowing dust by Wednesday afternoon followed by a slight chance for showers Wednesday night. -Reith For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ? ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Tue Feb 15 12:41:12 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:41:12 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Wednesday, February 16, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B2E9F6D@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> Health message for Tuesday February 15: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Wednesday February 16: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion Tuesday morning Sky Harbor Airport ACARS sounding data indicated that another strong (8-9 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion formed overnight - this one reaching to near 1800'. In combination with a mostly light or calm wind regime, another round of elevated hourly particle pollutant concentrations occurred between 7:00 and 10:00 a.m. These included 148.8ug/m3 of PM-10 (coarse) at the Durango monitoring site, 134.6ug/m3 at West Forty Third, and 129.0ug/m3 at Higley. The highest fine (PM-2.5) reading was 28.7ug/m3 at Durango. Fortunately, the warm ridge aloft and rather stagnant air mass that has been over the metro area since last Friday will move east on Wednesday as the mid-latitude storm track shifts southward. The first and weaker of at least two Pacific weather disturbances will bring an increase in winds to the Phoenix metro area on Wednesday; even though some blowing dust is possible, 24-hour average PM-10 levels are not expected to rise above the low-moderate range of the Air Quality Index. This will be followed by a slight chance for showers during the overnight hours. Although early in the year, a slight uptick in local ozone levels is possible on Thursday with low-level winds conducive to precursor transport from the west. Even so, good air quality is forecast with lower PM levels due to possible rainfall, cooler air aloft, and better dispersion. -Reith For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Wed Feb 16 12:51:52 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:51:52 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Thursday, February 17, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B2E9F79@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> Health message for Wednesday February 16: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Thursday February 17: No health impacts are expected. Synopsis and Discussion The first in a series of Pacific weather disturbances in the mid-latitude storm track will bring an increase in winds to the Phoenix metro today along with a slight chance for showers tonight and early Thursday. Latest Sky Harbor Airport ACARS sounding data indicate that 30+ mph winds are present as low as the 5K' level over the metro area. Some areas of blowing dust are possible this afternoon along with a few high hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) concentrations, but 24-hour average levels should stay in the low-moderate range of the Air Quality Index. After a mostly sunny day on Thursday, cloudy and breezy conditions are expected on Friday ahead of a deep upper level low and trough that is advertised to bring a good chance for rain on Saturday along with strong gradient winds and the potential for thunderstorms. This unsettled weather pattern will be conducive to good air quality Thursday and Friday. -Reith For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Thu Feb 17 11:17:11 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2011 11:17:11 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Friday, February 18, 2011 Message-ID: Health message for Thursday February 17: No health impacts are expected. Health message for Friday February 18: No health impacts are expected. Synopsis and Discussion: In the wake of a weak passing disturbance over the past 12 hours, a large upper level trough in the mid-latitude storm track - currently located off the west coast - will intensify before moving east toward the Phoenix metro area on Saturday and Sunday. At this time the system is forecast to deliver some rainfall to the Valley as early as Friday night with higher amounts on Saturday. Although strong and gusty gradient surface winds are possible on Saturday (64 mph forecast at the 10K' level and 43 mph at the 5K' level at 5:00 a.m.), the currently advertised onset and intensity of rainfall should preclude much in the way of blowing dust. As a result, good air quality is now being forecast thru the forecast period. Since the first of the year mostly trace amounts of rainfall have fallen in the metro area, so the pending unsettled and wet weather pattern will be highly appreciated. -Reith For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Fri Feb 18 11:40:33 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2011 11:40:33 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Saturday, February 19, 2011 Message-ID: Health message for Friday, February 18: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Health message for Saturday, February 19: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion: Another strong system will push through Arizona this weekend, bringing the Valley some much needed rain Saturday and Sunday. Clouds will continue to thicken through Saturday morning ahead of the system. Winds will start to increase out of the southwest Saturday morning with gusts possibly exceeding 25 mph at times during the afternoon. Rain amounts will generally be around a quarter to a half an inch in the lower desert elevations, pushing an inch in the upslope foothills in the north and east part of the forecast area. Mountains of Arizona will receive a fresh round snow with levels falling to 5,000 feet by Sunday morning. Though winds can be strong at times Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, the moisture associated with the system should negate the affects of the wind on they dry soil. Thus, particulate levels are forecast to remain in the GOOD range of the air quality index this weekend, especially once the rain hits the ground. Check back on Sunday for the latest on this system and a look ahead to next weeks weather and air quality. Until then, have a great weekend! -J.Paul For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Tue Feb 22 14:08:14 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2011 14:08:14 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B32296B@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Tuesday, February 22: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Health message for Thursday, February 23: No health impacts are expected. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will continue across the region the next several days as high pressure remains to the south of Arizona. A weak disturbance will pass through Arizona Wednesday, bringing little more than increased upper-level clouds between 5am and 5pm. Afternoon highs will hold in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the 40s. A much larger storm system will continue to develop off the west coast, slated to barrel through Arizona late Saturday into Sunday morning. Models suggest we could see another quarter to half an inch of rain here in the Valley at that time. Air quality levels continue to be pretty good in the Phoenix forecast area. Data shows that residential fireplace activity is up a bit as the Phoenix Supersite monitor reached the lower MODERATE range Monday A hazy start to the morning Tuesday confirms this. We know it is primarily from overnight fireplaces and fire pits because PM10 levels (coarser particles) were very low in comparison to PM2.5. Fortunately, we are expected much better mixing the next few days, allowing the pollution to disperse vertically as well as horizontally. Thus, maximum concentrations for all pollutants should remain primarily in the GOOD range of the Air Quality Index. If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Wed Feb 23 12:20:20 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2011 12:20:20 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B32297C@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Thursday, February 23: No health impacts are expected. Health message for Friday, February 24: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Models are continuing to point to another wet weekend here in the Valley. A strong storm system developing off the coast of Washington and Oregon will push on shore Friday, moving through Arizona Saturday and Sunday. Clouds, cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will precede the system. Showers are expected to develop in the Valley late Saturday evening, becoming heavy at times overnight, and tapering off Sunday morning. Rainfall amount across the Phoenix forecast area could range from a quarter to a half an inch in most places and closer to an inch in the upslope eastern and northern parts of the Valley. The next couple of days will see mostly sunny skies and afternoon desert temperatures in the upper 60s. Fairly light winds will allow a modest accumulation of pollution, including smoke particles from residential fireplaces. We saw another increase in PM2.5 levels overnight related to fireplace activity. Despite the decent mixing and expected rain-clearing storm system this weekend, we are now forecasting for PM2.5 levels to be in the lower MODERATE range the rest of the week. All other pollutants should remain in the GOOD range of the Air Quality Index (AQI). If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Thu Feb 24 12:36:30 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2011 12:36:30 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B322990@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Thursday, February 24: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Health message for Friday, February 25: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Another strong, cold, and potentially wet system will move into our forecast area this weekend. Clouds will increase from the west Friday afternoon as will the winds. Breezy conditions will continue through Saturday where a few gusts could reach 25 mph at times. The clouds will continue to thicken through the evening hours with rain starting to fall late Saturday night. Models are now expecting the bulk of the precipitation to fall Sunday morning. Rain totals across the Valley will range from a third to a half an inch in most places with up-slope areas to the north and east of Phoenix approaching or exceeding an inch. Several more inches (10 to 15) of fresh snow is possible in the mountains of northern and eastern Arizona. The system will continue east Sunday afternoon with showers tapering off by that time. Clouds will clear overnight Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will be impacted by the storm as well, dropping from the upper 60s Thursday through Saturday to the low 50s Sunday. High pressure rebounds quickly Monday. We'll see afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s by this time next week. Wednesday's air quality was fairly similar to the previous two days, with PM2.5 slightly lower but still in the lower MODERATE range of the air quality index. It's reasonable to expect more of the same today and Friday. Winds Saturday could kick up a bit more dust (PM10), just as it did last weekend. Fortunately last Saturday's rain stabilized the Valley's soil, so PM10 levels this time shouldn't be as high as they were last weekend. Tomorrow's model run will give us a good understanding of strength, moisture content, and likely timing of the system's onset. If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Fri Feb 25 12:55:20 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2011 12:55:20 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Saturday, February 26, 2011 Message-ID: Health message for Friday, February 25: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Health message for Saturday, February 26: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion: Models have solidified the likelihood of rain here in the Valley, increasing the probability to nearly 100%. Rain totals are still projected to be between a third to a half an inch in the lower desert elevations, approaching an inch in the up-slope areas to the north and east of the Valley. There is some mention of potential snow in some parts of the Valley over night Saturday into Sunday morning as snow levels come down to around 2,000 feet and temperatures approach freezing at the elevation. Regardless, any precipitation will be welcome here in the Valley of the Sun as we are now over an inch below normal for this time of year. The big issue will be the wind ahead of the rain. We did get some good soaking rain last Saturday, but not before the associated front sent a significant amount of dust in the air during on 60-minute period. That was enough to cause an exceedance in the southeast part of the Valley (West Chandler) and several other near-exceedances. So, did last Saturday's rain dampen the soil enough to prevent a repeat? General thinking is "yes". We will still likely see some areas of blowing dust, but the overall average for the day should remain in the upper MODERATE range. Once the rain begins late Saturday night, air quality will significantly improve and we will see GOOD levels on Sunday and Monday. Maximum desert temperatures will drop from the upper 60s on Saturday to the low 50s Sunday with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. The psychological cool down will likely prompt an increase in fireplace activity this weekend, resulting in higher PM2.5 levels Sunday and Monday. It's likely that we will see those levels reach the MODERATE range by Monday. Check back on Sunday for the weekend wrap-up and a look ahead to next week's weather and air quality. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Mon Feb 28 11:35:27 2011 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2011 11:35:27 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, March 01, 2011 Message-ID: <0D291498573F4E438642B9C7FDA7408B2E9FA5@ev-exch-be.adeq.lcl> Health message for Monday February 28: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Tuesday March 01: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion The mid-latitude storm track has now migrated to a latitude well north of AZ and is expected to remain there the remainder of the week. In its place a flat ridge aloft has built over the Phoenix metro area. During the past 24 hours the temperature over the Valley at the 10K' level has increased by nearly 22 deg F and during the next 36 hours the temperature at the 5K' level is predicted to rise by 18 deg F. Meanwhile, surface high temperatures are forecast to increase by only 6 deg F. As a result, stagnation of the local air mass already in progress will increase in magnitude; today's expected mixing depth of between 4K and . 5K' will likely decrease tomorrow. This situation will be exacerbated by overnight inversion formation, a mostly light wind regime, and increasing cloud cover on Tuesday. Fortunately, recent rainfall will help keep coarse particle (PM-10) levels down but a surge in fine particle (PM-2.5) concentrations is possible - depending to a large degree on the amount of overnight wood burning that occurs. Air Quality Index levels in the low-moderate range are now being predicted the next few days. Meanwhile, local ozone production should be suppressed on Tuesday due to cloud cover but increase again on Wednesday. Looking ahead, ozone readings may spike on Thursday if low-level winds become conducive to transport from CA as is currently being advertised. -Reith For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-2215 ms15@azdeq.gov ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you.