[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Thursday, November 25, 2010

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Wednesday November 24: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.   

Health message for Thursday November 25: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  


Synopsis and Discussion
Hourly fine (PM-2.5) and coarse (PM-10) concentrations were up this a.m.
in the vicinity of the Salt River channel.  Highest PM-10 readings
included 132.1ug/m3 at the West Forty Third monitoring site, 120.3 at
South Phoenix, and 96.7ug/m3 at Durango.  Highest PM-2.5 readings
included 24.6ug/m3 at Durango and 24.2ug/m3 at South Phoenix.
Fortunately, an upper level disturbance and surface cold front moving
southeast on the western flank of a very large upper level trough
currently overhead is expected to increase Valley winds and dispersion
later today.  However, in the wake of the disturbance a very cold and
stable air mass will be left behind and on Friday a warm ridge aloft
will build overhead from the west.  Substantial warming aloft (14-23 deg
F in the 5-10K' layer by Friday afternoon), strong morning inversion
potential, and a relatively light wind regime will cause a significant
increase in air mass stagnation. In previous years smoke from
wood-burning fireplaces has not been a significant issue during
Thanksgiving, but given the cold temperatures may cause PM-2.5 levels to
increase into the mid-moderate range of the Air Quality Index.  Then on
Friday, depending on the amount of post-holiday activities, residual
smoke, and degree of stagnation, the potential exists for both PM-10 and
PM-2.5 to reach their highest levels so far this season.  This situation
will be updated with tomorrow's forecast. -Reith 


For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf 

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov 

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