[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Wednesday, November 24, 2010

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Tuesday November 23: No health impacts are expected. 

Health message for Wednesday November 24: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  


Synopsis and Discussion
Morning Sky Harbor Airport ACARS sounding data indicates that the best
mixing depth today will be near 5800' and that dispersion will be in the
GOOD category.  However, thick mid and high clouds at times may impede
mixing and winds so that dispersion falls into the FAIR category.
Despite the rather grimy appearance out the window of the local air
mass, the highest hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) concentration this a.m.
was only 73.0ug/m3 at the West Forty Third monitoring site at 7:00 a.m.
Several sites reported elevated but not high PM-2.5 (fine particle)
readings as well.  Suspect that somewhat higher humidity levels are also
playing a role in the degraded visibility.  The western flank of a very
large upper level trough in the mid-latitude storm track will be over
the western U.S. including AZ today and Wednesday and by Thursday
morning an embedded disturbance moving southeast in the flow will bring
another shot of cold and drier air over the Valley.  The parent trough
will begin to move east by late Thursday as a strong ridge builds over
CA and the Great Basin.  Under these conditions local air quality would
normally be in the good range of the Air Quality Index, but smoke due to
an increase in holiday wood-burning fireplace use may result in an
increase in especially PM-2.5 levels as early as Wednesday evening.
Looking ahead to Friday, substantial warming aloft (18-25 deg F) in the
5-10K' layer) will lead to rapid stagnation and even higher particle
pollutant levels are possible. -Reith 


For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf 

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov 

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