[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Thursday, June 17, 2010

Wed Jun 16 12:27:57 MST 2010

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Wednesday, June 16: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 

Health message for Thursday, June 17: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 

Synopsis and Discussion
A same-day Ozone Health Watch that was issued yesterday was in fact validated as Tonto National Monument registered 90 AQI.  Only Buckeye and Dysart in the far west Valley, and Queen Creek and Maricopa in Pinal County recorded ozone levels in the "Good" range.  A deep trough of low pressure to our west is providing a decent southwest to northeast flow across the region this afternoon.  As a result, the invisible ozone plume will be sheered and spread to the north and northeast of the Phoenix forecast area today.  The trough will weaken and lift north of Arizona the next couple of days as high pressure to our southeast strengthens and moves north.  Sunny skies and light winds will rule the forecast through the end of the week.  Afternoon desert temperatures will range from 103-107°F through early next week. Models are suggesting that elevated ozone concentrations are possible again on Thursday due to the much anticipated light winds.  Therefore, mid to upper "Moderate" ozone levels are likely in the northern part of the Valley Thursday and Friday.

Removing the Trace of rain on June 12 and the 0.04 inches on April 22, Phoenix (Sky Harbor Airport) is now on day 85 without significant rain (dating back to March 23rd's 0.54" event).  The forecast calls for at least another 7-10 days of dry conditions.  Amazingly, Particulates (PM10 and PM2.5) continue to be in the "Good" range of the Air Quality Index.  It's possible that we could see one or two monitors pop into the lower part of the "Moderate" range, but nothing of significant concern.

Check back on Thursday for more.  Until then, have a good day!  -J.Paul

If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov

**********************************************************************
NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you.