[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Saturday, April 10, 2010

forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov
Fri Apr 9 11:23:51 MST 2010


For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Friday, April 9: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 

Health message for Saturday, April 10: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 


Synopsis and Discussion
Light easterly winds have effectively trapped local ozone producing
emissions in the Valley the past couple of days.  The result was North
Phoenix reaching 71 AQI on Thursday, with another 18 monitors across
Maricopa, Gila, and Pinal Counties climbing into lower "Moderate" range
as well.  We could see slightly higher levels Friday before tailing off
a bit Saturday and Sunday.  An approaching trough of low pressure will
increase winds out of the southwest the next few days, helping direct
the invisible ozone plume and its precursors to the northeast.  Much
stronger winds on Monday could provide good mixing that prevent ozone
precursors from setting up long enough to transform into the colorless,
odorless irritant we typically have to contend with during the summer
months.  

Particulate concentrations have also increased across the Valley as it
has now been 16 days since our last measurable rain.  Unfortunately,
models are suggesting that Monday's system may not dig far enough south
to effectively tap into that subtropical moisture.  It also looks like
temperatures won't drop as much either, remaining in the low 80s Monday
and Tuesday.  Wind without rain usually means blowing dust across the
deserts.  That may just be the case early next week.  

We'll have more on that situation as well as the latest forecast for
Valley ozone levels this Sunday.  Until then, have a great weekend!
-J.Paul
           

If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov



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