[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Thursday, October 01, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

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http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Wednesday, September 30: People with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Thursday, October 01: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 


Synopsis and Discussion
*A PM-10 HIGH POLLUTION ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TO DAY*

Impressive early season upper level trough in the mid-latitude storm track is over the western U.S., the southern portion of its axis over the AZ/CA border as of 5:00 a.m.  Moisture ahead of system was able to produce a few drops of rain over the north Valley, and Scottsdale Airport reported thunder between 5:00 and 6:00 a.m.  Although local wind gusts of up to 25 mph have been reported in the metro area thus far, no blowing dust has been reported or observed thru the noon hour.  However, strongest low-level gradients are still west of the metro area and the surface cold front is approaching from the northwest.  AMDAR soundings indicate 30+ mph winds aloft are still present within the expected mixing layer, so surface winds should increase some as daytime heating progresses and front approaches.  Am no longer expecting widespread blowing dust, but since some areas of elevated PM-10 (coarse particle) levels are possible, will let HPA run its course.  A weak ridge will build overhead by Thursday afternoon, so may see some more morning stagnation-driven PM-10 spikes before another system arrives during the weekend.

If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov

 
 

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