[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday October 26: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Tuesday October 27: People with heart or lung
disease, older adults and children should reduce prolonged or heavy
exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion

A PM-10 HIGH POLLUTION ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 27

An incredibly strong (for October) upper level trough and surface cold
front in the mid-latitude storm track will approach the Phoenix metro
area on Tuesday. Driven by a 180+ knot polar front jet max, this system
is forecast to drop afternoon Valley highs by nearly 25 deg F on
Wednesday afternoon from those of Tuesday. No rain and very little cloud
cover are predicted, but a rather lengthy period of strong and gusty
winds is being advertised. Forecast models indicate that sustained winds
at 5:00 p.m. Tuesday over the metro area could reach as high as 44 mph
at the 5K' level and 48 mph at the 10K' level. This would be at the time
of maximum daytime heating under a forecast mixing depth of 8600'.

All counties between Phoenix and El Centro, CA have been placed under a
NWS Wind Advisory beginning at 11:00 a.m. Tuesday. Since no significant
rain has fallen since August, this presents a very large fetch of dry
desert soils that may yield extremely high amounts of transported
fugitive dust over a long period as well as locally generated blowing
dust. Thus, a PM-10 (coarse particle) High Pollution Advisory has been
issued for Tuesday. In addition, with the cold front due to arrive
during the overnight hours, another peak in winds and PM-10 levels may
occur then. Elevated PM-10 concentrations may therefore continue on
Wednesday.

If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov

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