[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, November 24, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Monday November 23: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Tuesday November 24: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.


Synopsis and Discussion
A rather stagnant air mass, overnight inversion formation, relatively light winds, less than favorable dispersion, and much higher weekday PM emissions are again contributing to elevated particle pollutant levels this a.m. Latest Sky Harbor Airport AMDAR sounding data indicates that warming air aloft exists up to the 2300' level with a strong (7-8 deg C) surface-based radiation. The calculated best mixed layer depth by this afternoon is near 5100' and all wind data points thru that layer are 10 mph or less.  Highest hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) concentrations ranging from 102.3ug/m3 to 212.2ug/m3 at a total of eight monitoring sites from all compass points around the metro area indicates that dust-generating activities were widespread.  Also of concern are the high overnight fine particle (PM-2.5) readings with six-hour intervals of concentrations in the 35-45ug/m3 range at several locations - most likely due to smoke from wood-burning fireplaces.  On the one hand, increasing low-level gradients are advertised to increase daytime easterly surface winds on Wednesday and Thursday which would help with dispersion.  On the other hand, if wood-burning activities increase as the holiday approaches, most emissions will occur at night when dispersion and mixing heights are on the decline. Thus, one or more PM-2.5 Health Watches are possible beginning on Wednesday. -Reith 

If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov


 
 

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