[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, November 17, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Monday November 16: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Tuesday November 17: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.


Synopsis and Discussion
In the wake of last weekend's trough passage a ridge aloft has begun to build over AZ from the west accompanied by subsiding air aloft.  Since Saturday the temperature at the 10K' level above the Valley has already warmed almost 13 deg F resulting in the onset of stagnation.  In addition, per latest Sky Harbor AMDAR sounding data a strong (6-7 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion that reaches to 1100+' formed overnight in the very dry air mass, and the best mixing depth today will only be near 4400'. Hourly coarse particle (PM-10) concentrations spiked this a.m. in response and between 6:00 and 8:00 a.m. had reached 111.4ug/m3 at the Higley monitoring site, 111.9ug/m3 at South Phoenix, 152.1ug/m3 at West Forty Third, 167.3ug/m3 at Greenwood, 184.8ug/m3 at Durango, and 303.0ug/m3 at Buckeye.  The trend toward an increasingly stagnant air mass and higher particle pollutant levels will continue - especially with 12-13 deg F of warming slated to occur at the 5K' level by Tuesday afternoon compared with only 3 deg F at the surface.  Minor relief is expected on Wednesday with the approach of a weak upper level trough that may be just strong enough produce an increase in winds and an improvement in dispersion.  -Reith 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov

 

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