[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Thursday, November 05, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Wednesday November 04: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Thursday November 05: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.


Synopsis and Discussion
Despite record warmth for November, the string of days with a stagnant air mass over the Valley continues - as does overnight inversion formation.  AMDAR sounding data from Sky Harbor indicates that this morning's strong (8-9 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion reached to near 1800' and that the best mixing depth this afternoon will be around 5200'.  Once again hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) concentrations spiked upward over most of the metro area, reaching 187.5ug/m3 at the West Forty Third monitoring site, 172.0ug/m3 at Greenwood, 159.2ug/m3 at Durango, 158.4ug/m3 at West Phoenix, and 157.5ug/m3 at Higley.  Since the arrival of rather thick high clouds today will tend to inhibit solar gain and delay vertical mixing, afternoon particle pollutant levels may not drop as far as on Tuesday.  Another round of high clouds by Thursday evening may contribute to another tick upward in late night pollutant levels by blanketing the area.  More stagnant days lay ahead, but the approach and proximity of a weak upper level trough on Friday and another on Sunday will cause modest cooling aloft (12-14 deg F in the 5-10K' layer by Sunday) and an eventual increase in afternoon winds and improvement in dispersion.  -Reith 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov

 
 

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