[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Tuesday, November 03, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

*A PM-10 HEALTH WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT*

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Monday November 02: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Tuesday November 03: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.


Synopsis and Discussion
Monday morning Sky Harbor AMDAR soundings indicate that another strong (7-8 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion formed overnight and that it extends to almost 3500'.  This means that with a calculated best mixing depth of only 4300' the inversion will not be broken until mid-afternoon. Thru 9:00 a.m. highest hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) concentrations reached 217.8ug/m3 at the Durango monitoring site, 175.4ug/m3 at West Forty Third (following 130+ug/m3 readings from 5:00 thru 7:00 a.m.), 130.7ug/m3 at Buckeye, 94.0ug/m3 at South Phoenix, 81.3ug/m3 at Greenwood, 75.5ug/m3 at Dysart, and 74.9ug/m3 at Higley. Along with the developing stagnant air mass situation over the last few days, a dual spike particle pollution concentration pattern has emerged - one beginning during the pre-dawn period with the onset of the second around 5:00 p.m.  Thus, the PM-10 Health Watch will remain in effect thru midnight.  Some temporary improvement in dispersion is possible on Tuesday morning due to an increase in easterly gradient winds - especially over the east Valley.  Although areas adjacent to the Salt River Channel as well as the west Valley may not receive as much benefit, not-as-high PM-10 levels are predicted. No major changes in the current weather pattern are expected until the weekend, so more elevated to high particle pollution days are likely. -Reith 


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov

 

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