[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 17, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday March 16: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors.  

Health message for Tuesday March 17: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 

Synopsis and Discussion
As forecast, local ozone levels on Sunday reached the moderate range of
the Air Quality Index (AQI) for the first time this season.  During the
previous five years in the Valley (2004-2008) the average date for this
occurrence was March 17, so the assorted variables associated with ozone
formation appear to be on track.   Over the next two days full sunshine,
higher week day precursor emissions, relatively light winds, and a
warming trend should promote an increase in ozone production and
accumulation.  In fact, light winds during the a.m. periods may allow
for the formation of modest ozone plumes over the city center that would
migrate eastward over the higher terrain by afternoon - causing highest
readings to occur at sites such as Apache Junction & Fountain Hills.
Meanwhile, dry and warm weather will continue to reduce local soil
moisture levels; destabilized areas will be prone to higher fugitive
dust emissions, and a return to elevated readings may be inevitable.
Even so, all AQI levels are expected to remain below the mid-moderate
range of the AQI thru this forecast period. -Reith  

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