[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Wednesday, March 11, 2009: No health impacts are
expected. 

Health message for Thursday, March 12, 2009: Unusually sensitive people
should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 
	
Synopsis and Discussion
   A weak trough of low pressure continues to approach the southwestern
U.S.  Winds will increase throughout the day on Thursday.  Gusts could
possibly exceed 20 mph at times here in the Valley.  Early models had
this system much drier than the latest run suggests.  Regardless, it
still appears that there won't be any measurable rain in the Phoenix
forecast area as the bulk of the moisture will be confined to northern
Arizona.  Depending on local soil stability, it's possible to see
isolated areas of blowing dust.  Cooler temperatures will also be a
result of this low, with highs reaching the mid 70s at best on Thursday.
As the system moves east on Friday, much calmer conditions will resume
and those afternoon desert temps will begin to rebound.  In fact, high
pressure will strengthen through the middle of next week, allowing
further warming to the mid to upper 80s.
   Ozone continues to be in the upper part of the "Good" range.  It
wouldn't be much of a surprise to see our first "Moderate" ozone reading
of the season some time in then next week or so, especially with this
next ridge of high pressure (March 17 is the average day for the first
"Moderate" ozone concentration of the season).  In the meantime, expect
PM-10 levels to climb into the "Moderate" range on Thursday due to
increased winds, but drop back into the "Good" range once the air clears
and the dust settles.  Check back tomorrow for the latest on this
pending trough, as well as another look at that strong ridge of high
pressure that follows.  Until then, have a good day!  -J.Paul

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