[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Tuesday, March 10, 2009: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Wednesday, March 11, 2009: No health impacts are
expected. 

Synopsis and Discussion
   A weak disturbance will move through the region late Thursday through
Friday.  This will drop afternoon desert temperatures a bit, from the
upper 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday to the lower 70s on Friday.  A few
high level clouds may pass overhead on Friday, but there won't be any
rain for the Phoenix forecast area for at least for the next 7-10 days.
In fact, high pressure returns Sunday through early next week, allowing
temperatures to rebound to the mid 80s by next Tuesday.  
   The main focus with this disturbance will be increased winds.  Breezy
condition will start Thursday afternoon, lasting through Friday and part
of Saturday.  Recent moisture (a Trace of rain at Sky Harbor Monday
morning) may be enough to keep blowing dust from reaching its potential.
For now, we're going to adjust the forecast down for all pollutants back
into the "Good" range.  If tomorrow's model runs increase the winds for
Thursday, we may have to increase the forecast for PM-10 concentrations
accordingly.  
   Another issue we'll be keeping our eye on with this system as well as
similar disturbances over the next couple of months is transport of
ozone and precursors.  This type of weather system typically results in
higher local ozone levels due to transport of precursors from southern
California combining with locally generated ozone.  However, looking at
the latest concentrations in California (well in the "Good" range), it
doesn't appear that we will see a noticeable jump in our ozone this
time.  Check back tomorrow for more on this latest weather feature and
resulting air quality.  Until then, have a good day!  -J.Paul

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