[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 05, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Wednesday March 04: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  

Health message for Thursday March 05: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
No significant Valley rainfall since February 10 and daytime highs in
the 70's and 80's since February 19 have apparently begun to take their
toll on local soil moisture and stabilization.  Elevated hourly PM-10
(coarse particle) concentrations were widespread this a.m.; highest
readings included 115.4ug/m3 at the Higley monitoring site, 130.8ug/m3
at West Phoenix, 134.1ug/m3 at Greenwood, 142.6ug/m3 at South Phoenix,
152.6ug/m3 at West Forty Third, and 247.8ug/m3 at Durango.  Data from
recent ACARS soundings indicate that 30 mph winds are located as low as
the 5K' level over the metro area.  Since this afternoon's mixing depth
is projected to be in the 8-9K' range, and some thin spots/breaks in the
dense mid and high cloud cover are already underway, would expect higher
winds to mix to the surface later on.  Thus, another spike in PM-10
levels is possible if enough fugitive dust emissions occur. Breezes are
expected again on Thursday as a large upper level trough approaches the
area, and another blowing dust risk looks likely on Friday as a dry
surface cold frontal passage occurs.  Unfortunately, long-range weather
charts (thru 3/20) indicate that a series of dry disturbances could
impact the state - each one a potential local dust producer and typical
for this time of year.  -Reith  

**********************************************************************
NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR 
CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific 
individual(s) to whom it is addressed.  It may contain information that is 
privileged and confidential under state and federal law.  This information 
may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be 
subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the 
information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-
mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-
mail, and then delete the original e-mail.  Thank you.