[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 03, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday March 02: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  

Health message for Tuesday March 03: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
A rather stagnant morning was underway this a.m. with local ACARS
sounding data indicating that a moderate (6-7 deg C) surface-based
radiation inversion formed overnight and that the best mixing depth is
near 4700'.  In response, hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) levels reached
90.1ug/m3 at the Greenwood monitoring site, 107.1ug/m3 at Durango,
121.7ug/m3 at West Phoenix, 176.2ug/m3 at Higley, and 191.8ug/m3 at West
Forty Third.  Strong daytime heating and high temperatures near 90
degrees will provide good mixing and better air quality by afternoon,
however.  After reaching their highest readings of the year thus far
again today, local ozone levels are expected to decrease a bit during
this forecast period due to increasing mid and high clouds as well as
some cooling.  The local forecast area will be situated between a deep
upper trough to the west and a strong ridge to the east thru this
forecast period. Low-level gradients will be weak, and considerable
cloud cover will help retard 10-20+ mph winds above 7K' from mixing down
to the surface, so relatively light winds are expected thru Wednesday.
Otherwise, warm air aloft and overnight inversion formation will result
in modest air mass stagnation during the morning hours during which time
PM-10 levels at some locations may spike, but no near-to-unhealthy
24-hour average concentrations are expected. -Reith  

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