From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Mon Mar 2 11:14:52 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Mon, 2 Mar 2009 11:14:52 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 03, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Monday March 02: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Tuesday March 03: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion A rather stagnant morning was underway this a.m. with local ACARS sounding data indicating that a moderate (6-7 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion formed overnight and that the best mixing depth is near 4700'. In response, hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) levels reached 90.1ug/m3 at the Greenwood monitoring site, 107.1ug/m3 at Durango, 121.7ug/m3 at West Phoenix, 176.2ug/m3 at Higley, and 191.8ug/m3 at West Forty Third. Strong daytime heating and high temperatures near 90 degrees will provide good mixing and better air quality by afternoon, however. After reaching their highest readings of the year thus far again today, local ozone levels are expected to decrease a bit during this forecast period due to increasing mid and high clouds as well as some cooling. The local forecast area will be situated between a deep upper trough to the west and a strong ridge to the east thru this forecast period. Low-level gradients will be weak, and considerable cloud cover will help retard 10-20+ mph winds above 7K' from mixing down to the surface, so relatively light winds are expected thru Wednesday. Otherwise, warm air aloft and overnight inversion formation will result in modest air mass stagnation during the morning hours during which time PM-10 levels at some locations may spike, but no near-to-unhealthy 24-hour average concentrations are expected. -Reith ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Tue Mar 3 12:51:17 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2009 12:51:17 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 04, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Tuesday March 03: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Wednesday March 04: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion Per ACARS sounding data another moderate (6-7 deg C) surface-based Valley inversion that extends to over 1800' managed to form overnight. As of noon the inversion had not yet broken with thick cloud cover inhibiting vertical mixing as well. Hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) levels were up again this a.m.; readings reached 133.5ug/m3 at the Durango monitoring site, 134.5ug/m3 at West Forty Third, and 176.0ug/m3 at Buckeye. Interesting to note that with the return of afternoon westerly winds, highest recorded ozone levels at West Phoenix and North Phoenix during the weekend shifted back to the Apache Junction site on Monday. The local forecast area will remain situated between a deep upper trough to the west and a strong ridge to the east. The trough will draw closer with time, however, with cooler temperatures and stronger winds the main impacts. PM-10 concentrations are expected to peak on Wednesday due to the on-two punch of stagnation in the morning and light dust due to gusty winds in the afternoon. As the upper trough position becomes established over the western U.S., much cooler and perhaps showery conditions are advertised for the weekend. Until then, no significant local air quality problems are anticipated. Reith ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Wed Mar 4 13:07:52 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2009 13:07:52 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 05, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Wednesday March 04: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Thursday March 05: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion No significant Valley rainfall since February 10 and daytime highs in the 70's and 80's since February 19 have apparently begun to take their toll on local soil moisture and stabilization. Elevated hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) concentrations were widespread this a.m.; highest readings included 115.4ug/m3 at the Higley monitoring site, 130.8ug/m3 at West Phoenix, 134.1ug/m3 at Greenwood, 142.6ug/m3 at South Phoenix, 152.6ug/m3 at West Forty Third, and 247.8ug/m3 at Durango. Data from recent ACARS soundings indicate that 30 mph winds are located as low as the 5K' level over the metro area. Since this afternoon's mixing depth is projected to be in the 8-9K' range, and some thin spots/breaks in the dense mid and high cloud cover are already underway, would expect higher winds to mix to the surface later on. Thus, another spike in PM-10 levels is possible if enough fugitive dust emissions occur. Breezes are expected again on Thursday as a large upper level trough approaches the area, and another blowing dust risk looks likely on Friday as a dry surface cold frontal passage occurs. Unfortunately, long-range weather charts (thru 3/20) indicate that a series of dry disturbances could impact the state - each one a potential local dust producer and typical for this time of year. -Reith ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Thu Mar 5 12:13:42 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Thu, 5 Mar 2009 12:13:42 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 06, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Thursday March 05: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Friday March 06: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion It was still rather stagnant out there this morning, but the highest hourly PM-10 (coarse particle) level was 130.8ug/m3 at the Higley monitoring site at 7:00 a.m. A vigorous but dry upper level trough in the mid-latitude storm track, along with an associated surface cold front, will arrive over the local forecast area on Friday. Extensive cloud cover should help keep winds and blowing dust below their potential, but the frontal passage should result in breezy conditions as well as the potential for areas of locally-produced and transported dust. Under full sunshine, local ozone levels at some downwind monitoring sites may experience a spike on Saturday since the low-level flow will be capable of transporting additional precursors from California. Even so, relatively benign but cool weather conditions will follow during the weekend with overall good air quality expected. -Reith ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Fri Mar 6 12:13:09 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Fri, 6 Mar 2009 12:13:09 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 07, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Friday March 06: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Saturday March 07: No health impacts are expected. Synopsis and Discussion An upper level trough of low pressure combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient will produce breezy conditions throughout the Valley today. In its wake, another low pressure system will affect the region toward the end of the weekend into the early part of next week. Aside from fairly light winds on Sunday, the string of upper level troughs will produce locally breezy conditions that should help improve dispersion throughout the Valley over the next few days. Pollutant monitoring data from yesterday were already showing the effects of the approaching upper level trough as all pollutants were in the good range of the Air Quality Index. Winds will be moderate across the region today and the potential for localized areas of blowing dust does exist. In areas where this does occur, PM10 concentrations will be elevated. Otherwise, air quality across the Valley is expected to be quite good. This trend should continue through the weekend as the mid-latitude storm track will remain fairly active overhead. -Paris ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Mon Mar 9 13:58:51 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2009 13:58:51 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 10, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Monday March 09: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Tuesday March 10: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Synopsis and Discussion A thick sub-tropical moisture plume ahead of an approaching upper level trough managed to bring a few light showers to the local forecast area after midnight. This trough is still expected to bring gusty winds to the Valley by late afternoon, but the potential for blowing dust has decreased a bit. In the wake of the aforementioned trough, the main branch of the storm track will migrate well north of Arizona leaving behind a weak southern branch at this latitude. A very weak upper low is currently depicted to approach the state by Thursday; in the meantime, relatively light winds, overnight inversion formation, and modest warming aloft will tend to increase the local stagnation quotient with time; even so, highest pollutant levels are not expected to exceed the mid-moderate range of the Air Quality Index. -Reith ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Tue Mar 10 10:56:10 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Tue, 10 Mar 2009 10:56:10 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Tuesday, March 10, 2009: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. Health message for Wednesday, March 11, 2009: No health impacts are expected. Synopsis and Discussion A weak disturbance will move through the region late Thursday through Friday. This will drop afternoon desert temperatures a bit, from the upper 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday to the lower 70s on Friday. A few high level clouds may pass overhead on Friday, but there won't be any rain for the Phoenix forecast area for at least for the next 7-10 days. In fact, high pressure returns Sunday through early next week, allowing temperatures to rebound to the mid 80s by next Tuesday. The main focus with this disturbance will be increased winds. Breezy condition will start Thursday afternoon, lasting through Friday and part of Saturday. Recent moisture (a Trace of rain at Sky Harbor Monday morning) may be enough to keep blowing dust from reaching its potential. For now, we're going to adjust the forecast down for all pollutants back into the "Good" range. If tomorrow's model runs increase the winds for Thursday, we may have to increase the forecast for PM-10 concentrations accordingly. Another issue we'll be keeping our eye on with this system as well as similar disturbances over the next couple of months is transport of ozone and precursors. This type of weather system typically results in higher local ozone levels due to transport of precursors from southern California combining with locally generated ozone. However, looking at the latest concentrations in California (well in the "Good" range), it doesn't appear that we will see a noticeable jump in our ozone this time. Check back tomorrow for more on this latest weather feature and resulting air quality. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Wed Mar 11 12:15:03 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Wed, 11 Mar 2009 12:15:03 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Wednesday, March 11, 2009: No health impacts are expected. Health message for Thursday, March 12, 2009: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion A weak trough of low pressure continues to approach the southwestern U.S. Winds will increase throughout the day on Thursday. Gusts could possibly exceed 20 mph at times here in the Valley. Early models had this system much drier than the latest run suggests. Regardless, it still appears that there won't be any measurable rain in the Phoenix forecast area as the bulk of the moisture will be confined to northern Arizona. Depending on local soil stability, it's possible to see isolated areas of blowing dust. Cooler temperatures will also be a result of this low, with highs reaching the mid 70s at best on Thursday. As the system moves east on Friday, much calmer conditions will resume and those afternoon desert temps will begin to rebound. In fact, high pressure will strengthen through the middle of next week, allowing further warming to the mid to upper 80s. Ozone continues to be in the upper part of the "Good" range. It wouldn't be much of a surprise to see our first "Moderate" ozone reading of the season some time in then next week or so, especially with this next ridge of high pressure (March 17 is the average day for the first "Moderate" ozone concentration of the season). In the meantime, expect PM-10 levels to climb into the "Moderate" range on Thursday due to increased winds, but drop back into the "Good" range once the air clears and the dust settles. Check back tomorrow for the latest on this pending trough, as well as another look at that strong ridge of high pressure that follows. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Thu Mar 12 11:33:46 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 11:33:46 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Thursday, March 12, 2009: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Friday, March 13, 2009: No health impacts are expected. Synopsis and Discussion The breezy conditions are just not panning out as yesterday's forecast models suggested. It is still early, but a couple things may keep those winds from being realized here in the Phoenix forecast area Thursday afternoon. The first is that the center of the low is passing to the south of Arizona. This means that the stronger winds from the west are occurring in Mexico. The second factor is that the winds in the upper levels are just on translating down to the surface. The lack of significant surface winds and increased atmospheric humidity mean that PM-10 concentrations may not climb as high as expected on Thursday. By Friday, a rather strong ridge of high pressure will begin to build back over the region. Afternoon desert temperatures could reach the upper 80s to near 90?F by next Tuesday and Wednesday under mostly sunny skies and relatively light winds. These conditions are favorable for ozone generation. Adding to that is the possibility of a weak transport scenario. This means that the weather pattern will set up with the general flow from the central valleys of California southeast through southern California and then east towards Phoenix. Such a pattern often promotes transport of ozone and/or precursors into Phoenix from the deserts west of the forecast area. This addition ozone source combined with locally-generated ozone could result in our first "Moderate" levels of the year, possibly as early as Saturday. The pattern will remain in place through much of next week. Check back tomorrow for more detailed look at the weekend. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Fri Mar 13 11:09:22 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Fri, 13 Mar 2009 11:09:22 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 14, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Friday, March 13, 2009: No health impacts are expected. Health message for Saturday, March 14, 2009: Unhealthy Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion A weak are of low pressure remains overhead but will continue to weaken while moving east throughout the day. High pressure will return through much of next week leading to a warming trend. Weekend desert temperatures will climb from near 80?F in Saturday and Sunday to almost 90?F in some spots by next Thursday and Friday. Conditions will be good for local ozone generation this weekend, with additional precursors drifting towards the forecast area from the deserts of western Arizona and southern California. It's likely that concentrations will be in the "Moderate" range on Saturday and Sunday, possibly holding there through much of next week (for more information on Ozone and how it may affect your health, visit AirNow.gov). Particulates will likely continue to slip further into the "Good" range as long as winds remain fairly light and mixing heights keep increasing. Overall, it will be a great weekend for outdoor activities weather-wise. Those who may be sensitive to Ozone may want to slightly limit outdoor activity over the next week or so. -J.Paul ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Mon Mar 16 10:34:55 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Mon, 16 Mar 2009 10:34:55 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 17, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Monday March 16: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Tuesday March 17: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion As forecast, local ozone levels on Sunday reached the moderate range of the Air Quality Index (AQI) for the first time this season. During the previous five years in the Valley (2004-2008) the average date for this occurrence was March 17, so the assorted variables associated with ozone formation appear to be on track. Over the next two days full sunshine, higher week day precursor emissions, relatively light winds, and a warming trend should promote an increase in ozone production and accumulation. In fact, light winds during the a.m. periods may allow for the formation of modest ozone plumes over the city center that would migrate eastward over the higher terrain by afternoon - causing highest readings to occur at sites such as Apache Junction & Fountain Hills. Meanwhile, dry and warm weather will continue to reduce local soil moisture levels; destabilized areas will be prone to higher fugitive dust emissions, and a return to elevated readings may be inevitable. Even so, all AQI levels are expected to remain below the mid-moderate range of the AQI thru this forecast period. -Reith ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Tue Mar 17 12:05:25 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Tue, 17 Mar 2009 12:05:25 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18, 2009ADEQ Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Tuesday March 17: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Wednesday March 18: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion An upper level ridge will slowly shift from west to east over the next few days. As it does so, it will strengthen in intensity, leading to stronger inversions during the overnight and early morning hours. As a result, conditions will become increasingly stagnant during that time. High mixing heights during the afternoon hours, associated with near record temperatures, should help offset the morning stagnation and keep daily particulate pollution below the national health standards. Nonetheless, maximum concentrations for particulate matter during the next few days will likely reach the moderate category of the Air Quality Index (AQI) for the first time in two weeks. Meanwhile, ozone production remains in line with climatological values. While yesterday's ozone levels were just shy of the moderate range of the AQI, ozone production is expected to increase over the next few days and 8-hour concentrations will likely reach the moderate range of the AQI once again. Overall, pollution levels are expected to remain below the mid-moderate range of the AQI through this forecast period. - Paris ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Wed Mar 18 11:22:32 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:22:32 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 19, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Wednesday March 18: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Thursday March 19: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion Local morning ACARS sounding data indicates that a moderate (6-7 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion formed overnight and that it reaches to near 1900'. This afternoon's mixing depth is calculated to be near 8800' but the mean wind speed thru this layer is only around 5 mph. Thus, although stagnation of the Valley air mass will decrease with time, ultimate dispersion will only be in the FAIR category. The inversion has undoubtedly contributed to some rather high hourly coarse particle (PM-10) levels at a number of monitoring sites this a.m. Some of these readings include 79.1ug/m3 at Buckeye, 80.8ug/m3 at South Phoenix, 126.5ug/m3 at Higley, and at West Forty Third concentrations ranged from 137.2-278.7ug/m3 between 5:00 and 8:00 a.m. Meanwhile, ozone levels have risen about as expected but mostly at outlying locations; considerable high clouds on Thursday may keep ozone production below its potential. The warm upper level ridge that has been over the local forecast area the past few days will amplify on Thursday as a weak trough approaches from the west. This trough will eventually dissipate within the large-scale flow pattern as a large and intense disturbance approaches from off the west coast. Looking ahead, winds will increase by Saturday afternoon ahead of an associated strong surface cold front and a windy & dusty day is possible on Sunday; the issuance of at least a PM-10 Health Watch may be needed. -Reith ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Thu Mar 19 11:53:24 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:53:24 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 20, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Thursday March 19: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Friday March 20: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion Per local ACARS sounding data the overnight formation of another moderate (6-7 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion - this one extending to over 2100' - contributed to more elevated to excessively high hourly coarse particle (PM-10) levels this morning. Thru 9:00 a.m. the highest monitoring site readings included 75.4ug/m3 at Buckeye, 88.5ug/m3 at Greenwood, 99.0ug/m3 at Higley, and 115.5ug/m3 at Durango. Doubly troubling were the 352.9ug/m3 and 557.4ug/m3 concentrations at West Forty Third ending at 6:00 a.m., since a high wind event looks likely for Sunday. The warm upper level ridge that has been over the local forecast area this week will move east on Friday and an intense trough in the mid-latitude storm track will approach the area on Saturday. A strong frontal passage will occur on Sunday accompanied by strong and gusty winds over a lengthy period of time. Winds aloft over the Valley are currently projected to be in the 45-50 mph range in the 5K-10K' layer by Sunday afternoon and strong cooling with the front will help some of this momentum mix to the surface; winds at the 18K' level may be in excess of 120 mph! Since no significant rain has fallen locally since February 10 and "ambient" PM-10 levels are already elevated, this scenario has a strong potential for generating large volumes of blowing as well as transported/suspended dust locally as well as from southeast CA and southwest AZ. As a result, look for a PM-10 Health Watch or High Pollution Advisory to be issued for this event. -Reith ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Fri Mar 20 12:38:22 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 12:38:22 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Issues High Pollution Advisory for Sun., March 22 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Friday, March 20, 2009: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Saturday, March 21, 2009: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion *A PM-10 HIGH POLLUTION ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY, MARCH 22, 2009 * High pressure will briefly yield to a very deep trough of low pressure this weekend. This trough will dig south and push east through Arizona late Saturday through early Monday. It's going to be the winds and much cooler air that will be the main features of this system. The deserts can expect to see sustained winds on Sunday around 20 to 30 mph with gusts possibly reaching as high as 40 mph at times. It's been a while since our last significant rainfall and the surface soil is becoming less stable with each passing day, as evident by Thursday's mid "Moderate" PM-10 readings at West 43rd. There is an outside chance of a light shower on Monday morning, but unfortunately the bulk of the moisture looks to stay well north of the Phoenix forecast area. Loose, dry soil in combination with expected high winds support the high probability of blowing dust for several hours across the Valley on Sunday. This will likely lead to one or more monitors exceeding the 24-hr PM-10 health standard. Thus, a PM-10 High Pollution Advisory for Sunday is being issued. Afternoon desert temperatures will drop to the low to mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday, warming to the mid 80s by this time next week as high pressure re-establishes itself. Check back on Sunday for a better look at the impact of this pending system and the possibility of dust-relieving rain on Monday. Until then, have a great week! -J.Paul ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Mon Mar 23 10:57:58 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2009 10:57:58 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 24, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Monday March 23: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Tuesday March 24: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion In the wake of Sunday's high wind event there are lots of suspended dust (PM-10) particles over the Valley this a.m. Most local monitoring sites have recorded hourly coarse particle concentrations in excess of 100ug/m3 from midnight thru the 8:00 a.m. period. As the mixing depth increases and higher winds aloft become entrained, dispersion should improve this situation markedly by late afternoon. The upper level trough and surface cold frontal passage responsible for the winds also delivered a modest influx of California ozone and its precursors; at every metro area monitoring site peak hourly ozone concentrations for Sunday occurred between 9:00 and 11:00 p.m. The western flank of the aforementioned trough will remain over the local forecast area into midweek and may even deliver another strong wind event on Thursday. In the meantime, much lighter winds and only minor warming aloft should help keep coarse particle levels below critical levels on Tuesday and Wednesday and ozone levels - after peaking today - should remain in the low-moderate range of the Air Quality Index thru this forecast period. -Reith ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e- mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e- mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Tue Mar 24 13:48:16 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Tue, 24 Mar 2009 13:48:16 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 25, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Tuesday, March 24, 2009: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Wednesday, March 25, 2009: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion The forecast is calling for more winds on Thursday, similar yet slightly lighter than they were this past Sunday. There is a large trough of low pressure currently located over the central U.S. As it rotates counter-clockwise, embedded disturbances continue to drop south and then east, before finally being jettisoned to the northeast part of the country. The way the trough is positioned, Arizona is in the direct path of the next disturbance slated to move through Thursday afternoon. There will be no rain, so the threat of more blowing dust does exist. One positive thing to note is the direction of the winds. They will be out of the northwest this time. Northwest winds typically don't generate as much dust as winds from the southwest (more vegetation to the northwest). Thus, we will see elevated PM-10 levels once again on Thursday and early Friday, but we do not expect concentrations to exceed health standards at this time. Ozone and precursors continue to flow from west to east across Arizona under this weather pattern. It's possible to see a small spike in Ozone here in the Phoenix forecast area on Wednesday ahead of the winds, but again nothing too extraordinary. High pressure returns late Friday through the weekend. This will allow for afternoon desert temperatures to warm to the mid 80s by Sunday following the lower 70s on Friday. Check back tomorrow for the latest on the pending Thursday/Friday dust event. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Wed Mar 25 12:16:58 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Wed, 25 Mar 2009 12:16:58 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Issues High Pollution Advisory for Thurs., March 26 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Wednesday, March 25, 2009: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Thursday, March 26, 2009: Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma, should limit prolonged exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion *A PM-10 HIGH POLLUTION ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 26, 2009* All local PM-10 sites were in the "Moderate" category on Monday, but just a day later they've all fallen into the "Good" range. That will change in the next couple of days as another major wind event is slated for Arizona on Thursday. A strong disturbance will dive south into the region on the backside of a large trough of low pressure. This will produce winds out of the northwest Thursday through early Friday. Gusts around 35-40 mph are possible at times Thursday afternoon. There will not be much moisture at all with this system, so blowing dust is likely with low visibility at times in remote desert locations. As a result, we are issuing a PM-10 High Pollution Advisory for Thursday, March 26, 2009. Ozone may experience a slight rise in concentrations ahead of this system due to transport of precursor from the deserts west of the forecast area. Otherwise, values will remain in the upper "Good" range the next several days. Check back tomorrow for the latest. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Thu Mar 26 12:07:54 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Thu, 26 Mar 2009 12:07:54 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 27, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Thursday, March 26, 2009: Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma, should limit prolonged exertion outdoors. Health message for Friday, March 27, 2009: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion *A PM-10 HIGH POLLUTION ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 26, 2009* Winds have yet to pick up here in the Valley Thursday morning, but they will by around 2pm if not sooner. Possible gusts near 40 mph will likely generate blowing dust that reduces visibility to less a mile in some isolated desert areas at times. No rain is expected with this system, so residual dust may hang around for much of the day on Friday as well. There should be a nice break on Saturday with afternoon desert temperatures returning to the lower 80s, allowing further dispersion of lingering dust. The weather pattern looks like it will remain fairly unchanged for the next 7-10 days with the large trough of low pressure remaining anchored over the central U.S. For Arizona, this means that we can expected wind-producing disturbances to pass through the region every few days. Following Thursday's event, another slightly weaker system will move through Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Models suggest a third disturbance could produce more blowing dust next Thursday. It's possible there could be one or two more High Pollution Advisories during this period as rain will stay just out of range. Allergy sufferers as well as people with respiratory issues may want to keep a close eye on the forecast through next week as outdoor activities may be hindered due to blowing dust and pollen. Check back tomorrow for a closer look at the weekend weather and related air quality. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Fri Mar 27 12:49:54 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Fri, 27 Mar 2009 12:49:54 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 28, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Friday, March 27, 2009: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Saturday, March 28, 2009: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion Very strong winds cause damage across the Valley on Thursday, with downed tree limbs and a few broken power lines, but it was the dust that was the biggest problem. The site at West 43rd Ave, near the Salt River bottom, exceeded the health standard for the second time in five days due to strong sustained winds. Unlike Monday, however, Friday appears to have much less residual dust in the air. That's great news for people with respiratory issues. This weekend looks much better as high pressure slides east just enough to increase afternoon desert temperatures to the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday. Winds may increase a bit Sunday afternoon as another disturbance slides south through the Four Corners region, but we won't see winds this weekend anywhere close to those on Sunday and Thursday. Thus, most PM-10 monitors will likely slide into the "Good" range with a few locations in the lower "Moderate" category. Ozone, despite the strong winds on Thursday, nearly reached that range at a couple of locations. Thus, we'll probable see low "Moderate" ozone on Saturday and Sunday. Remember, the ozone forecasting season for Phoenix begins next Wednesday (April 1st). Check back on Sunday for look at the coming workweek's weather and related air quality. Until then, have a great weekend! -J.Paul ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Mon Mar 30 14:11:10 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2009 14:11:10 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 31, 2009 Message-ID: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Monday, March 30, 2009: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Health message for Tuesday, March 31, 2009: No health impacts are expected. Synopsis and Discussion A frontal boundary is currently making its way across the state this morning. Dew point temperatures have plummeted in the western and northern parts of the state in its wake. Meanwhile, winds in the Phoenix metro area have shifted out of the north, indicating that the frontal boundary is currently making its way through the south-central part of the state. The breezy conditions associated with the frontal boundary may be capable of creating localized areas of blowing dust; however, widespread elevated PM concentrations are not expected today. Ozone concentrations throughout the Valley are generally higher than they were at this time yesterday. Some ozone monitors are reporting ozone concentrations that are 10 parts per billion greater than 24 hours ago. If the recent ozone pattern associated with frontal passages holds true, AQI values for ozone may reach into the mid moderate range of the Air Quality Index (AQI) today, only to fall back to the upper good range or low moderate range on Tuesday. Another shortwave trough is expected to brush by the northern part of the state on Wednesday, contributing to another breezy day in the Phoenix metro area. The main focus, however, will turn to the latter half of the week when a stronger trough may impact the region. Check back tomorrow for more air quality updates. -Paris ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you. From forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov Tue Mar 31 15:12:25 2009 From: forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov (forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov) Date: Tue, 31 Mar 2009 15:12:25 -0700 Subject: [ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast For Wednesday, April 1, 2009 Message-ID: For more information, please visit our Web page: http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf For transportation alternatives: http://www.valleymetro.org Health message for Tuesday March 31: No health impacts are expected. Health message for Wednesday April 01: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. Synopsis and Discussion The majority of local ozone monitoring sites had 8-hour average ozone concentrations that reached the moderate range of the Air Quality Index on Monday - despite westerly wind gusts of 25+ mph during the afternoon hours. Of special interest was the fact that the highest AQI values were widely dispersed over the Valley - from West Phoenix to North Phoenix to Apache Junction. Winds at and just below the 10K' level were from the west or northwest upstream from the metro area all day Sunday and early Monday, so a minor influx of ozone and its precursors from California appears to have been a contributing factor yet again. The next in a series of embedded upper level troughs in the large-scale flow pattern will not only bring another round of gusty winds and localized areas of blowing dust to the local forecast area on Wednesday, but low-level winds will again be conducive for additional ozone transport. Beginning on Wednesday this product will feature data from the entire network of local ozone monitoring sites; as a result of the scenario just described, noticeably higher ozone levels - in the mid-moderate range of the AQI - will likely be reported by Thursday. If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact: The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Office of Communications 1110 W Washington St, Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-4583 communications@azdeq.gov ? ? ********************************************************************** NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law. This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail. Thank you.