[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast For Friday, June 19, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Thursday, June 18: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 

Health message for Friday, June 19: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 
 
Synopsis and Discussion
Under mostly sunny skies and with much lighter winds, local ozone production should be more efficient today than it has been during the past ten days.  At 10:45 a.m. a local AMDAR sounding indicated that the best mixing depth over the Valley was near 12,200' and that the mean wind speed within that layer was only eight mph. In addition, the mean directional component was from the east-southeast.  The parent upper level trough that has been over the west coast since the first of the month will move east and weaken today,  leaving behind a closed upper low that will linger over the Baja Peninsula the next 24 hours. The cyclonic (counter-clockwise) circulation around this low is advertised by forecast models to draw northward enough moisture from Mexico to produce an early but brief episode of summer monsoon weather over much of AZ, including Phoenix.  The low-level air mass will remain dry, so gusty outflow winds from storms that do develop are a certainty; an increased risk for brief periods of dense blowing dust by the early evening hours will accompany this weather change. Since increased cloud cover and winds look likely for Friday, ozone levels are forecast to decrease into the good range of the Air Quality Index once again.

If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:
The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W Washington St, Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov


 

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