[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast For Wednesday, June 17, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Tuesday, June 16: No health impacts expected.

Health message for Wednesday, June 17: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 
 
Synopsis and Discussion
For 16 of the past 17 days ozone levels at all monitoring sites in the Phoenix metro area have been in the good range of the Air Quality Index.  This is extraordinary considering the time of year, and given the very persistent synoptic weather pattern - featuring an upper level trough over or near the west coast - should be considered an anomaly of the first order.  On the other hand, the ozone concentration at Yuma zoomed upward into the upper-moderate range of the AQI on Monday, indicating that the chemical constituents and weather conditions necessary for high ozone levels are still nearby.  The high temperature at Yuma on Monday was only 94 degrees F (compared to 97 at Phoenix), afternoon winds were mostly <10 mph (compared to 30-mph gusts in Phoenix), and there was also likely some precursor transport from CA.  Current weather model outputs project that the troughing pattern over the western U.S. will be interrupted after midweek by a more moist southerly flow and weaker gradients aloft.  High temperatures are also expected to exceed the 100-degree mark by Thursday.  Thus, an increase in local ozone production and accumulation should follow with moderate AQI values as early as Wednesday.

If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:
The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W Washington St, Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
communications@azdeq.gov


 
 

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