[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 09, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday, June 08: No health impacts expected.

Health message for Tuesday, June 09: No health impacts expected.
 
Synopsis and Discussion
The current - and persisting - synoptic weather pattern features a
long-wave upper level trough over the eastern Pacific and western U.S.
Embedded disturbances (short waves) within this pattern have and will
continue to bring periods of gusty winds, unseasonably cool air masses,
and considerable cloud cover to the local forecast area for the
foreseeable future.  The next such disturbance - advertised to impact
the Valley on Tuesday - is even expected to produce isolated light
showers and thunderstorms.  This unusual situation can also be given
much of the credit for the atypically low local ozone levels of late;
dense cloud cover, gusty winds, and below average temperatures normally
all work against ozone production and accumulation.  In addition, since
the axis of the parent trough has remained west of the state, little if
any CA transport of ozone/precursors has occurred so far this month.
Since 1996 the lowest daily 8-hour ozone concentration recorded in the
metro area was 45 parts per billion on June 10 2003; the 51ppb last
Friday tied for the 4th lowest during this period.  Since latest output
from one long-range weather model shows the current weather pattern
continuing well into the 4th week of June, ozone levels will likely
remain below their potential for some time to come.  -Reith   

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