[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Tuesday, July 28, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Monday, July 27: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors.

Health message for Tuesday, July 28: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors.


Synopsis and Discussion

The upper level ridge that is primarily responsible for the development of the Monsoon in the Southwestern U.S. has continued its southward shift over the last 24 hours.  The current position of this high pressure circulation is not favorable for thunderstorm formation as a westerly steering flow is now in place.  As this area of high pressure continues to drift to the south, moisture will be on the decrease and the chance for thunderstorms near the Valley floor is virtually non-existent.  With the center of the high pressure circulation over southern Arizona today, this means very warm temperatures for all desert locals.  As a result, the National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning for today and Tuesday.  While the southward displacement of the high pressure circulation is resulting in drier, hotter conditions, air quality should generally improve due to enhanced westerly flow near the surface.  This enhanced westerly flow should act to disperse ozone concentrations over a larger area, with East Valley locations being the recipient of these highest ozone levels.  Meanwhile, with the decrease in moisture, we will not have to worry about thunderstorm outflow boundaries contributing to blowing dust as we saw on several occasions last week.  In summary, maximum ozone concentrations are expected to stay within the "Moderate" category of the Air Quality Index (AQI), while particulate pollution should remain in the "Good" category through the end of the forecast period.

If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:

The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W Washington St, Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215
ms15@azdeq.gov

 

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