[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, JANUARY 17, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Friday, January 16: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.

Health message for Saturday, January 17: Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
	
Synopsis and Discussion
   This weekend's weather will be absolute gorgeous, with afternoon desert temperatures in the mid 70s.  High pressure will slowly begin to move east over Idaho Saturday and Sunday, weakening as it continues over Colorado by Monday.  This will pave the way for a trough of low pressure to develop and move towards the west coast next week.  Models continue to flip back and forth between rain and no rain next Wednesday or Thursday.  Last night's model run had this trough tapping into sub-tropical moisture and drawing it north into Arizona by Thursday morning, resulting in rain totals just over a quarter of an inch in the Phoenix forecast area.  This morning's update... finally agrees.  That adds a bit more confidence to next week's event.  
   Air quality has actually improved slightly as both PM-2.5 and PM-10 concentrations have slipped to the low "Moderate" range.  The tailgate parties prior to and after the big game on Sunday between the Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale could produce quite a bit of additional particulates.  BBQs and fireplaces will likely generate some lingering overnight smoke across parts of the Valley, so we will edge the PM-2.5 forecast levels up a bit on Sunday.  Otherwise, this weekend will be a good time to call friends and family back east to brag about the our great weather (a high of only 34°F and snow in Philadelphia compared to 74°F and sunny in Phoenix on Sunday!)  Check back on Sunday for more.  Until then, have a great weekend!  -J.Paul  

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