[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, JANUARY 13, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday January 12: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Tuesday January 13: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
Monday morning ACARS sounding data indicated that the best Valley mixing
depth today will be near 3300' and that dispersion will be MARGINAL.  Of
more significance was the strong (15-16 deg F) surface-based inversion
that formed overnight and that extended to near 1800'.  Twelve of those
degrees occurred between the surface and 500', which equates to a mean
increase of 1 deg F per 42'!  Hourly fine particle (PM-2.5) levels rose
dramatically over some areas Sunday and remain very high this morning
under a stagnating air mass versus Saturday in the wake of a weak trough
passage.  Smoke from weekend overnight residential wood burning likely
played a major role in the spike in fine particle emissions; just as
likely is that these emissions will decline some during the work week.
However, since only 7ug/m3 separates a 24-hour average concentration in
the mid-moderate range of the Air Quality Index from one that reaches
Health Watch criteria, the situation will be watched closely and
statements will be issued if the trend continues upward.  PM-10 levels
have also begun to increase; a 200+ug/m3 hourly reading was measured at
the Durango site at 9:00 a.m. this morning.  -Reith  

**********************************************************************
NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR 
CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific 
individual(s) to whom it is addressed.  It may contain information that is 
privileged and confidential under state and federal law.  This information 
may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be 
subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the 
information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-
mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-
mail, and then delete the original e-mail.  Thank you.