[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 07, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Tuesday January 06: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Wednesday January 07: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
A recent local ACARS sounding revealed that the Valley's current best
mixing depth is near 4500'.  Since the mean wind speed thru the mixed
layer was only 5 mph, this yields a dispersion value in the MARGINAL
category.  An earlier sounding showed that only a weak (1-2 deg C)
surface-based radiation inversion formed overnight but that it reached
to over 2K'.  Both coarse (PM-10) but mainly fine (PM-2.5) particle
concentrations have responded in a negative fashion to the evolving
stagnant air mass over the metro area, but hourly readings are still
within tolerable limits; the highest PM-2.5 concentration was 23.0ug/m3
at the South Phoenix site at 10:00 a.m.  A rather strong ridge aloft has
begun to build over the area, and will likely peak in strength on
Thursday - by which time temperatures within the 5K-10K' layer over the
Valley are advertised to rise by over 20 deg F with only 11 deg F
warming at the surface.  In addition, stronger inversions are
anticipated to form the next few mornings and considerable high clouds
are possible on Thursday.  If fine particle emissions stay at their
current levels, it is doubtful that unhealthy concentrations will be
reached this week.  However, if a jump in residential wood-burning
occurs, a Health Watch may be needed for Thursday.  Except for this
potential, no air quality concerns are foreseen.  -Reith  

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