[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, APRIL 28, 2009

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday, April 27: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion outdoors. 

Health message for Tuesday, April 28: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion outdoors. 
 
Synopsis and Discussion
Elevated ozone levels were prevalent over most of the Phoenix metro area
on Sunday on the heels of another identifiable California
ozone/precursor transport episode; upstream monitors at both Yuma (Yuma
County) and Alamo Lake (La Paz County) had similar readings.  A large
upper level trough in the mid-latitude storm track will remain over the
western U.S. thru this forecast period, but will also weaken with time.
Strongest local area winds are expected to occur on Tuesday with the
passage of an embedded disturbance; only isolated pockets of blowing
dust are expected.  Since the mid-level trough axis is advertised to
remain over the AZ/CA border and gusty southwesterly winds are on tap
for the Valley Tuesday, no additional CA ozone import appears likely;
however, the Yuma area may receive another dose.  As the system weakens
in place, winds aloft upstream from Maricopa County will become
increasingly favorable for periodic influxes of CA ozone and its
precursors (NOx).  As a result, an upward trend in ozone levels is
predicted to occur by Wednesday or Thursday. -Reith   

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