[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Issues Air Pollution Health Watch for Wed., April 15

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Tuesday, April 14: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion outdoors.  
Health message for Wednesday, April 15: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion outdoors.  

Synopsis and Discussion

A PM-10 HEALTH WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 15
A powerful, but mostly dry (for the deserts) upper level trough and
surface cold front are on the approach to the local forecast area from
the northwest this morning.  A large, strong, and persistent wind field
associated with the system will be capable of generating and
transporting large volumes of dust (PM-10) from the upstream desert
regions of southeastern California and western Arizona over the metro
area by this evening. Forecast models indicate that the strongest winds
aloft - 35-50 mph in the 5-10K' layer - will occur over the Valley
proper between 11:00 p.m. tonight and 11:00 a.m. Wednesday morning and
that the surface frontal passage will occur by mid-morning.  The time of
day of the frontal passage, along with a fair amount of low-level cloud
cover, may help keep winds below their potential.  In addition, by
afternoon Valley winds should gradually decrease from their morning peak
and recent heavy rainfall will help delay the onset of locally produced
dust.  Because this wind event will be split between two reporting
periods, highest 24-hour average coarse particle concentrations may also
be split; based on the above criteria, a PM-10 Health Watch issuance for
Wednesday was given the nod over a High Pollution Advisory.  This means
that there will still likely be a high volume of coarse particle
pollution in the air over an extended period of time, so those residents
with heart or lung disease should consider remaining indoors.  -Reith   

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