[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Tuesday, September 23: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.

Health message for Wednesday, September 24: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
A rather strong ridge aloft will be building northward over the
Southwest U.S. the next few days with a summer monsoon-like circulation
pattern expected Wednesday thru at least Friday.  At this time
significant moisture is not expected to return to Arizona; in the
meantime, weakening gradients over the local forecast area will
translate into relatively light winds today and especially on Wednesday.
Under sunny skies afternoon temperatures will approach the 105 degree F
mark by Wednesday; this, combined with mostly light or easterly winds
will be conducive to above average local ozone production and
accumulation.  Highest concentrations are predicted to fall just short
of Health Watch criteria, but a major portion of the metro area may be
impacted by elevated ozone levels.  As the ridge amplifies to the east
of Arizona on Thursday, a tight east to west pressure gradient will
become established and result in easterly breezy to borderline windy
conditions thru the late morning hours.  This will help to dramatically
increase ozone dispersion and result in much lower concentrations that
day. -Reith

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