[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday, September 22: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.

Health message for Tuesday, September 23: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
A weak upper level trough passage occurring occur today over the local
forecast area will result in a rather breezy afternoon; a recent ACARS
sounding revealed 35+ mph southwesterly winds as low as the 6500' level
over the metro area.  With a best calculated mixing depth of 11,600'
some of this momentum should easily mix to the surface by mid-afternoon.
In the wake of this system, an area of high pressure aloft will build
northward over Arizona by Tuesday afternoon. The accompanying warming
trend and decrease in winds - combined with sunny conditions - will
likely contribute to a peak in local ozone levels Wednesday afternoon
that is now considered capable of approaching Health Watch criteria. (A
similar synoptic weather pattern during the last week of September 2003
produced ozone levels that would have exceeded the current ozone
standard).  Otherwise, air pollutant concentrations are expected to be
in or near the good range of the Air Quality Index thru Wednesday.
-Reith   

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