[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Thursday, September 18:  Unusually Sensitive People
should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Health message for Friday, September 19:  Unusually Sensitive People
should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Synopsis and Discussion
   Afternoon desert temperatures will be right around 100 degrees the
next three days, dipping slightly into the upper 90s by Monday as a
trough of low pressure brushes the northern part of the state.  In the
wake of that trough will be somewhat drier air.  Thus, it's highly
unlikely that we will see any rain here in the Phoenix forecast area
through at least next Thursday.  
   Proving how hard it is to forecast for Particulates, this time Coyote
Lakes was the lone local monitor to register "Moderate" concentrations
on Wednesday.  It was likely due to local gravel operations just north
and east of the location as the highest levels were around midnight.
Take away Coyote Lakes, and all other PM-10 sites were well in the
"Good" range.  With winds expected to remain relatively light, we will
keep the forecast for PM-10 in the "Good" category, noting that isolated
episodes of "Moderate" levels not caused by weather may occur.  Models
continue to predict Ozone concentrations approaching the health
standard, but they have consistently been wrong.  It's not out of the
question to see such levels, but so far it's just not happening.  Our
forecast for 71 and 64 AQI for today and Thursday respectively, may
still be conservative given the lack of ozone the past several days
under similar conditions.  It's almost safe to say that we are out of
the proverbial ozone woods here in Phoenix until next April.  Until
tomorrow, have a good day!  -J.Paul


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