[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2008

forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov
Mon Oct 27 11:56:01 MST 2008


http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday October 27: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  

Health message for Tuesday October 28: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
A PM-10 HEALTH WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 27
The axis of a very large and strong ridge aloft is over AZ and a very
deep trough is located to the east of the state.  At the surface a
"back-door" cold front along the AZ/NM border is accompanied by a tight
surface pressure and low-level contour gradient that has resulted in
heightened sustained winds and gusts to nearly 50 mph at Tucson and to
over 35 mph at Casa Grande. These winds have generated a large volume of
suspended dust that has since settled over much of the region -
including the Phoenix metro area.  As winds increase over the Valley
proper some areas of blowing dust are likely to add to the coarse
particle pollution.  Thru 10:00 a.m. very high PM-10 concentrations had
occurred over the full length of the Valley; at the southeast metro
Higley monitoring site the highest hourly concentration reached
464.9ug/m3, the West Forty Third site had 464.9ug/m3, and Buckeye had
560.8ug/m3.  Despite good to very good dispersion today due to ample
wind speeds, today's best mixing depth of only about 4K' will begin to
shrink rapidly after dark, and could trap a high volume dust over the
Valley thru the nighttime and into the Tuesday a.m. period.  Although
today's PM-10 Health Watch has not been extended, elevated PM-10 levels
are likely again on Tuesday with even higher concentrations possible on
Wednesday as winds become light and ventilation decreases.   -Reith   

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