[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Wednesday, October 22: No health impacts expected. 

Health message for Thursday, October 23: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
As expected, a rather tight pressure low-level pressure/contour gradient
over AZ - between a strong ridge to the west of AZ and a deep trough to
the east - has resulted in gusty north to easterly winds over the local
forecast area this a.m.  Not expected was the generation of areas of
blowing dust is some parts of the Valley.  For example, at the Coyote
Lakes monitoring site located in the far NW Valley hourly PM-10 (coarse
particle) concentrations reached 521.6ug/m3 at 8:00 a.m. and 694.6ug/m3
at 9:00 a.m.  During the same period winds at Luke AFB and the Glendale
& Deer Valley Airports were only in the 15-25 mph range.  Other earlier
high PM-10 levels could be attributed in part to a rather strong (7-8
deg C) surface based inversion that formed overnight: West Forty Third
had 377.5ug/m3 at 6:00 a.m. and Durango had 388.9ug/m3 at 7:00 a.m.; the
latter site had a peak PM2.5 (fine particle) level of 56.2 ug/m3.
Thankfully, dispersion will be excellent by this afternoon and particle
pollutant readings at all sites had begun to drop as of 10:00 a.m.  A
very strong ridge aloft will build over the state into the weekend; air
mass stagnation due to mostly light winds and overnight inversion
formation will be offset to some degree by afternoon  maximum
temperatures of 90+ degrees.  Highest air pollutant concentrations
should not exceed much beyond the mid-moderate range of the Air Quality
Index.       -Reith   

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