[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Friday, October 10: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Saturday, October 11: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
*A PM-10 HEALTH WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2008*
   Another large Pacific trough of low pressure is getting ready to push
through Arizona.  Models are now suggesting that it will be quicker than
previously expected.  This means that peak winds could occur late Friday
night into early Saturday morning.  Winds will be out of the southwest
across the region Saturday, possibly gusting as high as 40 mph at times
around Yuma and the deserts near Tucson.  Phoenix is likely looking at
sustained winds around 15-20 mph with a few peaks near 25 mph.  Brief
periods of blowing dust are possible, especially in areas of unstable
soil.  Because this system is a quick mover, winds will decrease by
Saturday afternoon in the Phoenix forecast area as they shift out of the
northwest.  They will decrease further on Sunday and Monday as high
pressure begins to build from the west.  Afternoon desert temperatures
will be right around 80 degrees in Phoenix on Saturday and Sunday,
gradually warming early next week.  Again, this system does not have
much moisture associated with it.  It will, however, tap into some of
the wetter air from Hurricane Norbert, drawing it northeast into eastern
Arizona.  This means that the mountains east of Arizona could see some
rain on Saturday, but the Valley should remain dry despite cloudy
conditions early.  Other than the additional moisture in eastern
Arizona, the Hurricane itself will have little affect on Arizona as it
moves inland well south of the state, continuing to lose strength while
moving northeast towards New Mexico.  
   Ozone will drop further into the "Good" range with this weather
system Saturday and Sunday and should remain there through the first
part of next week.  Particulates will climb into the upper part of the
"Moderate" range on Saturday, before relaxing on Sunday with the calmer
winds out of the north.  Another episode of stagnant conditions is
possible on Monday and Tuesday as the cooler air moves over the region,
creating stronger morning inversions.  Thus, we could see some elevated
particulates levels once again on Monday and Tuesday.  Check back on
Sunday for more information.  Until then, have a great weekend!  
-J.Paul

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