[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast For Thursday, October 09, 2008

forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov
Wed Oct 8 13:48:43 MST 2008


For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Wednesday, October 08: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Thursday, October 09: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
It was another rather stagnant morning over the local forecast area;
local ACARS soundings revealed the overnight formation of a moderate
(7-8 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion that extended to nearly
1500'.  This contributed to more high hourly particle pollutant
concentrations that included PM-10 levels of 221.9ug/m3 at the Durango
monitoring site, 230.0ug/m3 at South Phoenix, and 337.5ug/m3 at West
Forty Third (at 7:00 a.m.).  With a maximum afternoon high temperature
near 100 deg F and a best mixing depth of 7300', FAIR to GOOD dispersion
should help to dissipate the thick Valley Brown Cloud that was evident
overhead.  A major change in the weather pattern will begin on Thursday
as a strong polar front jet (130+knots) carves out a large and deep
upper level trough over the western U.S. For now it appears that this
feature will not tap into much moisture shed from Hurricane Norbert -
currently located well south of Baja - and the subsequent lack of
significant cloud cover will permit 30-40 mph winds aloft to mix
downward on Friday.  Given the absence of noteworthy rainfall since late
August, and elevated morning PM-10 levels already underway, the
potential for widespread blowing and suspended dust is high.  Thus, a
PM-10 High Pollution Advisory is being considered for Friday.


If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please
contact:

The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W Washington St, Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-4583 
communications@azdeq.gov



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