[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 08, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Tuesday, October 07: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Wednesday, October 08: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
Morning ACARS soundings revealed that a moderate (6-7 deg C) but shallow
(<1000') surface-based radiation inversion formed overnight and that the
best mixing depth this afternoon will be near 7900'.  Some rather high
hourly particle pollutant concentrations occurred this morning: at 7:00
a.m. the coarse particle (PM-10) level at the West Forty Third
monitoring site reached 181.7ug/m3, the reading at Durango peaked at
344.5ug/m3, and Higley had 172.7ug/m3.  Meanwhile, the highest fine
particle (PM-2.5) concentration was 55.8ug/m3s at Durango.  Additional
warming aloft over the Valley is advertised for Wednesday, and a.m.
winds should be weaker.  Therefore, particle pollutant levels during
this initial stagnation episode should peak tomorrow - but stay below
unhealthy levels.  A big change in the synoptic weather pattern will
begin by Thursday afternoon as a very large upper level trough in the
mid-latitude storm track moves toward Arizona from the NNW.  Dispersion
and air quality should be much improved as afternoon winds become
noticeably stronger and a cooling trend begins. -Reith   

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