[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Issues Air Pollution Health Watch for Sat., Oct. 4

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Friday, October 3: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Saturday, October 4: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
*A PM-10 HEALTH WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2008*
   A significant trough of low pressure will dominate the weather this
weekend across Arizona.  We're already seeing the upper-level clouds
ahead of the system.  Beginning Friday evening, winds will increase
across the Arizona deserts from the southwest.  The deserts of
California already have westerly and southwesterly sustained winds
around 15 mph Friday morning.  By Saturday, winds are expected to reach
15 to 25 mph in the Phoenix forecast, possibly gusting higher at times.
The system continues to push through the region on Sunday, shifting the
flow out of the west and northwest.  Desert temperatures will only reach
the mid 80s on Sunday and Monday.  By Monday, the trough will be over
New Mexico with winds across Arizona much lighter out of the north.  

   What does all this mean for this weekend's air quality here in the
Phoenix forecast area?  Strong winds on Saturday will likely produce
periods of blowing dust in the deserts, reducing visibility at times.
This could push Particulate concentrations towards the health standard.
Thus, we are issuing a PM-10 Health Watch for Saturday.  As the trough
move east, winds will decrease somewhat out of the west and northwest.
This should allow some of those suspended particles to settle.  Further
improvement is expected on Monday as the weather pattern transitions
from a trough to a ridge of high pressure.  Ozone will not be an issue
as the weekend's winds should mix the air up enough so that ozone and
its precursors don't have the opportunity to accumulate.  With
Particulate concentrations expected to approach the health standard
across Maricopa County this weekend, there are a few things residents
can do help from further enhancing the weekend's potential dust event:
Drive slow on or avoid using unpaved roads, water down loose soil,
curtail off-road vehicle use, and refrain from using leaf blowers or
other lawn equipment that may kick up additional dust.  These are just a
few tips, but anything we can do to help is a plus!  Check back Sunday
for more on the coming week's weather and air quality.  Have a great
weekend!  -J.Paul

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