[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Thursday, November 6: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Friday, November 7: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
   The trough of low pressure responsible for the cooler air in Arizona is now centered near Nebraska and South Dakota.  Looking to our west we see a modest ridge of high pressure.  This ridge will continue east the next few days, providing us with some nice weather and a slight warm-up through Saturday.  By Sunday, however, another pool of cooler air dives south along the west coast and into Arizona.  This will drop temps once again from near 80°F across the deserts on Saturday, to the low to mid 70s early next week.  A series of subsequent disturbances will prevent any dramatic temperature rebound until at least the following weekend.  Winds over the next several days will be fairly light, leading to decreasing ventilation.  This means that hazy mornings will continue until at least Sunday.
   Despite the weak inversion this morning, not much change has occurred in the air quality arena.  PM-10 concentrations were once again in the lower part of the "Moderate" range while PM-2.5 levels held in the "Good" range for the fourth day in a row.  With the approaching ridge of high pressure, the levels will increase heading into the weekend as low-level winds decrease.  We could see some improvement on Monday in the wake of the next system with a little better mixing, but early indications are that the improvements won't give us that pristine Valley postcard view (you can see what the would look like as well as the latest camera views at http://phoenixvis.net).  Check back tomorrow for latest on your weekend's weather and air quality.  Until then, have a good day!  -J.Paul

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