[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Extends Air Pollution Health Watch through Fri., May 16

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Thursday, May 15:  Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 
 
Health message for Friday, May 16:  Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 
 
Synopsis and Discussion

*An Ozone Health Watch remains in effect for Thursday, May 15, 2008, and is being extended through Friday, May 16, 2008*

Here comes the ozone once again... Despite cloud cover and somewhat cooler temperatures, ozone levels are ramping up across the Valley, just as expected.  The trough of low pressure over the southwestern U.S. is situated in such a way with high pressure to the northwest that Arizona is seeing a flow out of the northeast.  Again, this type of flow tends to prevent ozone and precursors from naturally escaping the Valley to the east and northeast.  As a result, we get higher ozone concentrations over most of the in-town monitors rather than the far-east locations such as Apache Junction.  The Ozone Health Watch for Thursday should verify this afternoon with many locations in the upper "Moderate" range of the Air Quality Index (AQI).  Will it hold up?  Winds will continue to be out of the northeast through Friday with high pressure mounting an offensive on the trough.  This interaction of the two pressure systems will create some occasional gusty winds on Friday afternoon.  This could be enough to cause a plateau in ozone generation before it reaches its full potential.  Therefore, we are issuing an extension of the Ozone Health Watch through Friday.  High pressure will steadily move east over the forecast are, decreasing winds and shifting the flow out of the south by Sunday.  This may give us a slight break in elevated ozone for a couple days before getting back at it early next week.  Particulates dropped of nicely on Wednesday and should remain in the low "Moderate" range through the weekend.  It's time to put away those coats you got out for Tuesday's chilly 80°F as temperatures will soar to around 103-108°F here in the Valley of the Sun Sunday through next Wednesday!  So get out and enjoy the cooler weather while it lasts!  Have a good day!   -J.Paul

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